Bitcoin OGs have eased their selling pressure, further boosting the crypto asset’s chances of recovery. These are early adopters of BTC, including early miners, developers and first adopters.
Some of these investors bought BTC when the price was below $100 and then made a huge profit after holding it for more than 5 years.
The explosive Bitcoin [BTC] This cycle attracted profit-taking from this cohort, a move that some analysts say partially slowed the asset’s momentum into 2025.
However, at the time of writing, there was selling pressure from Bitcoin OGs decreased from a 90-day average of 3,000 BTC in 2024 to 1,000 BTC in 2026 – a drop of 73% in two years.
Source: CryptoQuant
Institutional demand exceeds mined BTC
So far, market shifts in 2026 have been positive for BTC. In particular, the massive selling pressure at the end of 2025 from long-term holders (investors who held BTC for more than five months), ETF outflows and excessive leverage have largely been reset.
This has laid the structural foundation for a solid recovery. In fact, current institutional demand for BTC is almost five times the new supply, or the number of BTC miners.
As of mid-January 2026, institutions have absorbed 30,000 BTC, far more than the newly minted 5.7,000 BTC.
Source: Bitwise
A similar trend was observed in 2025 and 2024, when ETFs debuted. JPMorgan analysts even predicted that cryptocurrency inflows will increase in 2026, after hitting a record $130 billion in 2025. The analysts wrote:
“The recovery of the institutional flows we forecast for 2026 will likely be facilitated by the introduction of additional crypto regulations such as the Clarity Act in the US, which will likely lead to further institutional adoption of digital assets and new institutional activity.”
Will BTC’s Recovery Expand?
Here it is worth noting that the True MVRV, an oscillator that identifies major market cycles and shifts in investor sentiment, bottomed out around 1.0 and recovered to 1.1.
Past recovery patterns at the same level have shown that shifts (local tops) occurred as the oscillator rose to 1.5 (mid-range) or 2.0.
In other words, if the current recovery continues, things could cool off as the MVRV rises to 1.5 or 2. At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $95.5k, up 18% from the low of $80.6k in Q4 2025.
Source: CryptoQuant
Final thoughts
- Selling pressure from early Bitcoin investors who started investing more than five years ago is down 73%.
- The recovery could extend itself if the macro landscape supports it, but it could cool off if the True MVRV shifts to 1.5.