On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth indicator has continued to decline recently, a sign that new capital inflows lack momentum.
Bitcoin’s realized capital growth has been declining lately
As explained by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in a new after on X, Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has been trending lower lately. The “Realized Cap” is an on-chain capitalization model for BTC that calculates its total value by assuming that the value of each individual token is equal to the spot price at which it last traded on the blockchain.
This is in contrast to the usual market capitalization, which simply calculates the total value of the asset by multiplying the number of tokens in circulation by the current spot price, with the last value of the cryptocurrency being considered the sole value for all coins.
Basically, what the Realized Cap represents is the amount of capital that Bitcoin investors as a whole used to purchase the supply of the asset. On the other hand, market capitalization is the value that the investors carry in the present.
The Realized Cap itself is not the indicator of interest in the current discussion, but rather the Realized Cap Growth, which measures the 365-day changes taking place in the Realized Cap.
Changes in the indicator obviously reflect the amount of capital leaving or entering the cryptocurrency. In other words, the Realized Cap Growth contains information about the net flow of the asset.
Here is the chart shared by Maartunn showing the trend in the 7-day and 59-day moving averages (MAs) of Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth over the past few years:
As shown in the chart above, Bitcoin Realized Cap Growth has recently witnessed both the 7-day and 59-day MAs, with the former crossing line below the latter.
The trend indicates that Realized Cap growth has slowed during the recent market downturn. “This suggests Bitcoin lacks momentum due to new cost base inflows,” the analyst noted.
With the 7-day MA falling below the 59-day MA, the indicator now shows that the current market is in a ‘bear phase’. The last time this signal lasted for an extended period of time was during BTC’s decline in the first few months of 2025. It now remains to be seen how long the momentum of new capital inflows will remain weak for Bitcoin this time.
In other news, Bitcoin’s short-term holders are still under notable stress, as CryptoQuant author IT Tech has noted in an after.
Short-term holders (STHs) are defined as the Bitcoin buyers who entered the market in the last 155 days. Despite the recovery BTC has seen since its November low, STHs are still down 10%.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is hovering around $92,400, down 1.5% in the past 24 hours.