Bitcoin’s recovery efforts are still being judged against a larger structure that has been monitoring price action for months. An interesting technical analysis of the daily timeframe chart shows that Bitcoin is still following a descending channel, with every major upswing failing near the upper diagonal and every major sell-off finding a reaction near the lower bound.
The final rejection round $83,100 in May has now become the main focus, and Bitcoin is now moving back into the lower half of the channel where the last bottom could wait.
Bitcoin’s descending channel still controls the larger trend
Eight months into a correction stretch defined by lower highs and lower lows starting at $126,000, Bitcoin shows no signs of divergence. The daily candlestick chart shows that Bitcoin has transitioned into a broad descending channel that has remained intact throughout these eight months.
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The upper limit acted as resistance every time Bitcoin attempted a stronger recovery, first around the $97,855 lower high and later around the $83,156 lower high. Each rejection has kept the larger bearish structure alive. The lower limit was also important. Bitcoin previously reacted near $82,167 before bouncing to the first major lower high, then dropped back down to around $60,000 in early February 2026.
The rejection of the $83,156 resistance level in May also fits into that same structure. Bitcoin is currently down over 12% since that rejection, opening around $73,670 in June.
With Bitcoin trending down, the projection is that the next step lower may not just be a regular lower low. The projection through a crypto analyst who goes by the name NoName on
Prediction markets prefer $60,000 over $100,000
There are several technical perspectives that are predicting a further bottom before Bitcoin starts a new rally. These predictions also correspond to a separate sentiment signal from the prediction markets.
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Particularly the Kalshi Crypto prediction markets currently has one 60% implied chance of Bitcoin reaching $60,000 before $100,000, meaning crypto participants are currently placing more weight on another major downside move before a six-figure recovery takes place
Kalshi also gives Bitcoin only one 34% chance of getting back above $100,000 before January 2027, which is a big turnaround since early 2026 when the market estimated a 94% implied probability of BTC trading above $100,000 by mid-year.
Bitcoin would still need to lose key support zones for that deeper target to become realistic. The first test is whether sellers can keep the price above it the center of the channel at $70,000 and avoid another rebound above $78,000 and $83,000.
Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com