Since the short squeeze in mid-December, Bitcoin has yet to make any significant price gains, facing multiple rejections in the $90,000 price zone. The first cryptocurrency is currently consolidating within the $87,000 mark as investors patiently anticipate a clear market direction. According to pseudonymous analyst Sunny Mom, a recent on-chain analysis suggests that bearish sentiment will remain dominant in the coming months, following the initial extended correction in October and November.
Why Rising Short-Term Bitcoin Supply Provides a Rare Bearish Signal
In one QuickTake post on December 27, Sunny Mom draws attention to the BTC HODL waves, which show rising shares of short-term holders coinciding with falling prices, reversing a metric that typically supports bullish narratives. Historically, an increase in the supply of short-term holders (STH), coins held for less than 155 days, signals new capital entering the market ahead of sustained rallies. However, the analyst described the current move as “passive pocket holding” rather than signaling “new blood.”
This is because investors who bought during the $120,000 rally in October, driven by FOMO, alongside dip buyers in November are now sitting on unrealized losses, creating a price setup that is changing market behavior. Sunny Mom explains that every relief rally comes with selling pressure as these holders try to end at breakeven levels, effectively turning the growing STH cohort into a ceiling rather than a floor. That’s why price rebounds are struggling to gain traction.
The renowned analyst explains that the market is witnessing an emotional toll that is visibly growing in the chain. Notably, there have been repeated spikes in net realized loss (NRL) since the October liquidations, suggesting capitulation is underway, with investors continuing to lock in losses after months of forbearance. Sunny Mom describes the process as a “dull knife” that ultimately cuts deep, an indication that weaker hands are being forced out not by a single crash, but by prolonged exhaustion.
The demand vacuum for Bitcoin is likely to fall below $80,000 and remain active
In further analysis, Mom attributes the current bearish stance to a demand vacuum. The market expert explains that foreign exchange reserves are at their lowest level in several years, indicating limited direct sales liquidity. At the same time, long-term holders (LTHs) show little interest in distributing coins, reinforcing the view that persuasion capital remains intact.
So the problem lies on the demand side. With macro uncertainty still high, new buyers appear reluctant to step in, creating a demand vacuum. This also creates thin order books, meaning that even modest selling pressure can drive prices down sharply.
While some market watchers are targeting a possible recovery in the first quarter of 2026, citing expectations of interest rate cuts and improved global liquidity. Mother predicts Bitcoin may need a “final shakeout” to resolve the imbalance and reset the market for a bullish breakout. The analyst points to a possible move below $80,000 as a liquidity chase that could flush out remaining weak hands and allow larger holders to re-accumulate.