Gold has quietly surpassed Bitcoin by a wide margin – and one Wall Street analyst says this gap tells the real story of where the markets are going.
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Bitcoin’s ETF Gains Palestine Against Gold’s Price
Since the launch of the American spot Bitcoin exchange traded funds In early 2024, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust helped boost the price of Bitcoin by about 50%.
Goldover the same route, climbed about 135%. This performance gap is central to the argument from Mike McGlone, senior commodities strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, who says capital may already be moving from risky assets to safer territory.
McGlone laid out his case through a series of posts on X, warning of the explosive turn of events Bitcoin gains made above $100,000 after the advent of spot ETFs may now be over.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $72,000. McGlone’s negative goal is $10,000. Getting there would require a decline of more than 86%.
Bitcoin can play a leading role in the return of risk assets
The launch of US Bitcoin ETFs in 2024 has helped push the price above $100,000 and could guide a return to $10,000. What stands out in my chart is that the firstborn crypto will peak in 2025, alongside the US stock market… pic.twitter.com/LCKF213Ss4
— Mike McGlone (@mikemcglone11) April 9, 2026
Peak cycle, not a new era
McGlone traces Bitcoin’s 2025 high of $126,200 to a specific moment in broader market history. At about the same time Bitcoin hit that peak, the total value of the U.S. stock market relative to the country’s gross domestic product hit its highest point since 1928 — a ratio widely used to judge whether stocks are overpriced. According to McGlone, this overlap is no coincidence.
He describes the circumstances that drove Bitcoin’s rise as a mix of ETF-driven inflows, political tailwinds from US President Donald Trump. embracing cryptoand what he calls “peak beta‘ – a phase in which speculative assets rise briefly before falling sharply.
Reports from his analysis suggest that this combination created the conditions for a sharp reversal rather than a sustained bull run.
Bitcoin is also about four times more volatile than the S&P 500, according to McGlone’s data, which he says makes it a difficult sell for institutional investors weighing return against risk.
Capital rotation raises questions about Bitcoin’s role
The S&P500, have outperformed Bitcoin ETFs on a risk-adjusted basis since their debut. McGlone points out that this is a sign that the ETF launch may have served more as a late-cycle catalyst than a structural turning point for the asset class.
Based on his analysis, the phase he calls “pump and then dump” – in which prices rise and then reverse – may already be underway. If that reading is correct, Bitcoin could fall alongside other speculative assets while gold continues to attract investors looking for stability.
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McGlone doesn’t say exactly when a drop to $10,000 would occur. His argument is based on broader market conditions tightening and investors retreating from risk, rather than a specific timeline.
What he is clearly saying is that the ETF boom, once seen as a long-term driving force for Bitcoin, may have already done most of its work.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView