Bitcoin’s price action has since moved into bearish territory fell below a major previous low who had supported the rally for months. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $78,560, having fallen to $77,082 in the past 24 hours, a move that crypto analyst XForceGlobal says represents a significant change. change in the technical structure.
According to his detailed Elliott Wave analysis shared on
Related reading
Breakdown below previous low changes Primary wave count
According to XForceGlobal it is Bitcoin had done its job a complex lateral structure, specifically a WXY combination that was expected to be resolved through distribution rather than outright failure.
Bulls managed to complete three of the five required components of this triangular structure, but the inability to defend the previous low was the signal that led to a structural shift. This previous low points to the low of $82,000 in November 2025. Bitcoin Bulls failed to defend this low point when price action broke below $80,000 in the most recent 24 hours.
Once that level gave way, the number of primary waves could no longer be maintained. In terms of the Elliott Wave count, that lower low means that price action from the all-time high should be treated as separated and corrective, and not part of a healthy continuation. This restructuring gives the current decline more room to develop from a Fibonacci extension perspective and changes the minimum and maximum downsides objectives need to be evaluated.
Bitcoin price chart. Source: @XForceGlobal On X
Two bearish scenarios point to the same zone
The resulting analysis shows two main scenarios of how Bitcoin’s price action could continue from here, both of which converge at similar downside levels. The first is a flat correction, with Bitcoin currently unfolding a C wave. Although XForceGlobal describes this as the least attractive option, this would still be the case imply a full distribution reach that invalidates a bullish structure and drags Bitcoin price to a low of $60,000.
The second scenario is a macro ending diagonal, structured as a WXY move down. This scenario uses the October 2025 all-time high above $126,000 as a cutoff point to improve the wave separation of the current price action. Interestingly, the price projection from this scenario also corresponds to targets in the same $60,000 range. Despite different technical developments, both interpretations point to a similar downside risk in the medium term.
Related reading
With the larger structure now compromised, XForceGlobal says it makes sense to adopt a shorter-term bearish bias while reorganizing the next wave count. The outlook is for Bitcoin to continue its decline to at least $60,000 before returning to the stage a return above $100,000.
Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView