Despite being down nearly 30% from its all-time high, Bitcoin has kept investors excited about the possibility of a recovery.
The asset, which was trading at $92,231 at the time of writing, was in a critical zone that continues to fuel the debate between bulls and bears.
Traders widely view this level as a turning point that could either trigger a renewed rally towards $100,000 or a pullback towards the $80,000 region. On-chain data and sentiment indicators now provide clearer insight into how investors are positioning themselves.
Could one year’s change herald the next rally?
Bitcoins [BTC] A one-year change in performance has historically served as a reliable indicator in identifying the early stages of both bull and bear markets.
At the time of writing, the one-year performance change was -4.5%, indicating that Bitcoin is not yet fully in bearish territory.
However, this modest decline reflected one of the rarer scenarios from an earlier cycle, in which Bitcoin’s one-year price change briefly turned negative before a strong rally. A similar setup emerged prior to the 2021 bull run.
Source: Alpharactal
To put this into perspective, the previous cycle began in March 2020, when Bitcoin bottomed at around $3,782 before recovering to an all-time high of $64,850. This step meant a gain of more than 1,600% within the cycle.
While a similar size of gain isn’t guaranteed, a shift in the one-year percentage change into positive territory could give Bitcoin an edge in making a big upward move toward a new all-time high.
However, if the percentage change does not turn green over a year, it could mark the start of a deeper downtrend and the early stages of a new bear market.
Is the percentage change enough to confirm a bear phase?
A persistently negative value of annual percentage change will not be the only measure for determining whether Bitcoin is entering a prolonged decline.
Other technical factors will also play a key role.
One of these is Bitcoin’s two-year moving average, which is currently around $84,500.
This level has historically served as a key indicator of downside risk. Analyst Joao Wedson warned that losing this level significantly increases the chances of capitulation.
Source: Alpharactal
An analysis of Bitcoin’s liquidation heatmap revealed how liquidity clusters are positioned around this SMA support and how price is likely to react.
At the time of writing, the market was showing limited liquidity around $85,400.
However, traders have piled on significant liquidity both above and below the aforementioned price level. On the upside, liquidity grows from $86,817 to the $90,000 zone, while at the downside it concentrates between $81,609 and $81,733.
These zones often act as demand areas, as price tends to trade in them before a decisive move is made. If liquidity between $86,000 and $90,000 acts as a catalyst, Bitcoin could move higher from this range.
If this region fails to hold, Bitcoin could lose the $84,500 support level and slide towards $81,000, risking further downside.
Sentiment remains bullish
Despite the technical uncertainty, market sentiment remains largely bullish.
Community Sentiment indicators, which allow traders and investors to vote on their price prospects, show strong optimism. Currently, about 80% of the 5.9 million voters support a bullish scenario for Bitcoin.
While sentiment alone isn’t enough to confirm a bull market, industry data also expresses confidence. Changpeng Zhao, co-founder of Binance, recently posted on
He wrote,
“I could be wrong, but Super Cycle is coming.”
Zhao attributed part of his outlook to recent developments in the United States, including the removal of crypto from certain risk classifications, which he sees as a positive signal for the sector.
Although speculative, the prospect of a supercycle could push Bitcoin back to its all-time high and support the rare historical pattern where a short negative annual change precedes a major rally.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s one-year percentage change shows a similar pattern to the setup that sparked the multi-month bull run that stretched into 2025.
- The two-year support level remains a key zone in determining whether bulls or bears will take control, with some analysts already calling for a potential ‘super cycle’.