- BTC’s last 1 month of realized volatility reflected historically low numbers.
- BTC transfer volume retreated sharply from early June highs.
Bitcoins [BTC] price moves continued to disappoint both bulls and bears as the crypto community desperately waited for a breakout in either direction.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
BTC remains sluggish
Since the rally triggered by institutional interest in cryptos, BTC has moved in a narrow trading range of $30,000 – $31,000. This has resulted in a noticeable drop in volatility.
According to Glassnode, BTC’s 1-month realized volatility fell to 23.68% on July 23, similar to the historically low levels recorded in the market in late 2022 and early 2023.
Source: Glassnode
Trading activity is down
The decrease in volatility was mainly due to the decrease in trading activity and investors’ preference for coin hoarding. BTC deposits on centralized exchanges fell to a 3-year low according to a recent update shared by Glassnode, indicative of the lull in trading activity.
📉 #Bitcoin $BTC The number of foreign exchange deposits (7d MA) has just reached a 3-year low of 1,817,923
The previous 3-year low of 1,819,321 was observed on July 23, 2023
View statistics:https://t.co/v3uKq4dCjX pic.twitter.com/inAIJZvNlv
— glassnode alerts (@glassnodealerts) July 24, 2023
Liquid supply is the number of BTC tokens available to trade on the secondary market, such as exchanges. With supply falling to multi-year lows, tokens transferred on-chain also trended downwards.
As shown below, BTC transfer volume retreated sharply from early June highs.
Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin’s bullish outlook
While the HODLing activity was led by long-term holders, who were known to store coins for longer periods of time, short-term holders were not left behind. After cashing in on their holdings during the April rally, these supposedly “weak hands” have steadily accumulated in their portfolios.
Sentiment for HODL is rooted in the growing optimism behind BTC’s future prospects. With institutional interest in digital assets spiking against the backdrop of multiple spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) filings, many of these investors were trying to get ready for the market during BTC’s next bull run.
The halving eventthat preceded bull markets in the past could also be an important factor behind the HODLing strategy.
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As things stand, the market is in an equilibrium phase. Overall, macroeconomic conditions have played a role in injecting volatility into BTC price movements.
Traders were counting on the upcoming FOMC meeting this week to provide direction for BTC’s trajectory. Experts believed that the US Federal Reserve could raise rates by 25 basis points this time after pausing the rate hike cycle in June.