Journalist
Posted:
- Based on fundamental data, the analyst noted that the 2024 halving may not be as impactful as the previous one.
- The NVT signal showed that BTC is still undervalued.
The effect of Bitcoin [BTC] The halving in the coin’s price could be minimal, noted veteran trader Peter Brandt in a recent post on X.
The analyst’s opinion may have driven a nail into the heart of BTC holders. But Brandt backed up his point with reasons. According to him, Bitcoin’s halving could come with a lot of hype, as expected.
However, he said that the reduction in supply would ensure that the impact on the BTC price is minimal. Brandt’s opinion came as a surprise to some of his followers, who wondered why he had switched from his more familiar technical analysis to the fundamental side.
The Bitcoin halving hype is a lot of excitement about nothing
Certainly, halving the hype could temporarily impact the price
But the reduction in supply as a percentage of daily volume is the size of a mosquito pic.twitter.com/9JWRr12dkt— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) December 21, 2023
A possible change in the effect
The analyst responded by saying that technical analysis does not prevent him from evaluating supply and demand.
For many, Brandt’s conclusion may not be valid. One reason for this is BTC’s historical performance post-halving. For example, after the halving in November 2012, Bitcoin went from $11 to $133 in 2013.
2016 was no different as BTC rose from $600 to $4,000 months later. It was also in 2021 that the coin hit an All-Time High (ATH) above $69,000.
This time, there is also widespread expectation that the king coin would reach a new ATH after the 2024 halving.
Over the past 365 days, the value of BTC has increased by 159.22%, making up for unfavorable market conditions in 2022.
Given the current conditions, AMBCrypto checked whether the coin has the potential to rise even more. To do this, we considered the Network Value to Transaction (NVT) signal, provided by on-chain intelligence company Glassnode.
BTC is not at the top
At the time of writing, the NVT signal had dropped to 85.40. The metric uses a 90-day moving average of Bitcoin volume and transactions to identify market tops or bottoms.
Since the NVT signal dropped from 102.33, it means that BTC has not overheated.
Source: Glassnode
Therefore, it could be possible for the coin price to rise before the end of 2023. In the meantime, many forecasts place BTC in the region of $45,000 to $50,000 before the end of the year.
However, Bitcoin’s halving isn’t the only catalyst that could impact BTC’s price action next year. There is also a possible spot ETF approval.
Is your portfolio green? Check the BTC profit calculator
If the US SEC approves one of several ETF filings by January 2024, many believe it would open the door for a flow of institutional capital into Bitcoin.
This could also influence a rise in the BTC price. So regardless of the halving impact, there is a chance for BTC to reach a new high before the four-year event. Whether Brandt’s opinion would become reality or not, only time would tell.