Michael Nadeau, founder of The DeFi Report, says he remains bullish on Hyperliquid in the long term, but argues that the latest move in HYPE seems ill-timed. In one after at
Nadeau’s central point is not that Hyperliquid is broken. It’s that HYPE’s recent strength may be greater than what the underlying data currently supports. “I’m a fan of both @Globalflows and HYPE but think he’s here early,” Nadeau wrote. He added that HYPE had “been strong in the bear market (outperforming BTC) because of its token economics + the ‘TradFi/Oil futures’ story,” before arguing that “the reality is that Hyperliquid looks like a ‘risk-off’ chain, just like the rest of crypto.”
Bullish hyperliquid in the long term, but not now
That distinction is important. Hyperliquid bills itself as a high-performance layer-1 built for a fully on-chain financial system, with on-chain order books for perpetuals and spot markets. Bulls have also focused on HYPE’s design: Hyperliquid says trading fees go to the community, while the relief fund converts fees into HYPE and burns those tokens, and stakers can get discounts on trading fees. In other words, when Nadeau talks about “token economy,” he is referring to the structural features that have made HYPE attractive even in a tough market.
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He also briefly points out the ‘TradFi/Oil futures’ story, which has become one of the more powerful stories surrounding Hyperliquid in recent weeks. The platform’s thesis is that it can extend crypto’s 24/7 market structure to more traditional assets, and oil-linked perpetuals on Hyperliquid saw a burst of attention during the recent geopolitical shock around Iran, when traders used the venue to price crude oil outside of normal trading hours. That background helped fuel the idea that Hyperliquid was becoming a real-time macro trading platform, rather than just another crypto chain.
Nadeau’s objection is that the figures no longer fit neatly with that story. “Costs are down 56%. Volumes are down 55%. Open interest is down 44%. Bridge assets are down 32%,” he wrote, adding that there had been “very little inflow over the past 30 days.” These numbers are crucial. Cost and volume indicate how much actual trading takes place. Open interest keeps track of how much derivative exposure is still outstanding. Bridged assets are a rough signal for how much capital is going into the network.
He further sharpened the point, saying, “The reality is it’s the same 50,000 users on HYPE that we saw last year.” That’s a blunt way to frame the concern: price can be based on narrative expansion, while user growth and capital inflows remain relatively flat.
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Nadeau then shifts from fundamentals to market structure. He says oil futures volume on Hyperliquid peaked on March 9 and has been trending lower since then, undermining one of the main catalysts behind this move. At the same time, he claims that HYPE is “locally overbought,” citing an RSI of 67 and says the token is facing resistance at its 50-week moving average, a longer-term technical level that many chart watchers consider a key trendline.
His skepticism also extends to PURR. PURR, which now trades on Nasdaq as Hyperliquid Strategies Inc., describes itself as a digital asset treasury company focused on accumulating HYPE and giving exposure to the token to US and institutional investors. Nadeau called buying that vehicle a “head scratcher” in a “riskless bear market,” especially since he said there is still little evidence that traditional finance is urgently chasing HYPE exposure. He noted that HYPE is up 93% since Jan. 20, while PURR is up 87% over the same period.
The net result is a measured warning, not a bearish capitulation. Nadeau is still “long-term bullish,” but for now he is “fading the recent action.” For traders, a clear conclusion remains: the long-term Hyperliquid thesis may still be intact, but in his view the short-term setup no longer offers a particularly attractive entry.
At the time of writing, HYPE was trading at $41,031.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com