Bitcoin’s correction from nearly $126,000 to around $60,000 sparked major realization activity across the network. However, the sell-side risk ratio has since retreated towards the lower realization margin of almost 0.1%, revealing a different market environment.
Historically, highs above 1% have been associated with major cycle tops and periods of intense profit-taking, as seen in 2017 and 2021. Since then, the measure has steadily compressed, while Bitcoin continues to trade well above previous bear market lows.
This decline suggests that investors are realizing fewer significant gains or losses, indicating reduced economic activity rather than renewed distribution.
Open interest owns almost 47 billion dollars, but is still using the reconstruction cautiously. So Bitcoins [BTC] seems locked in a waiting phase, in which stronger demand on the spot market remains necessary to break the current equilibrium.
Historical bear signals are facing continued accumulation
As selling pressure continues to subside and the rebuild is gradually exploited, attention shifts to Bitcoin’s broader cycle structure.
Recent price action increasingly reflects the recovery phases that followed the 2014, 2018 and 2022 bear markets, where stabilization preceded stronger trends. This similarity helps explain why sentiment remains cautious despite improving conditions in the chain.
Yet the belief continues to grow stronger beneath the surface. Supply of long-term holders (LTH). has increased to 16.46 million BTC worth approximately $961 million liquidity of stablecoins remains nearly $315 billion, according to DeFiLlama.
Together, these trends suggest that patient accumulation continues. Therefore, Bitcoin remains caught between cyclical caution and long-term resilience.
Bitcoin selling pressure is decreasing, demand is still lagging behind
Bitcoin’s recent stabilization suggests that selling pressure is easing, but demand remains insufficient to confirm a sustainable recovery. Spot Taker CVD is showing a weakening of bearish momentum, although buyers have not yet taken control.
ETF inflows of $85 million supports sentiment; However, the previous outflow continues to limit confidence. Meanwhile, the Coinbase Premium Index remains neutral, reflecting cautious participation in the spot.
Data about the chain reinforces this picture. The MVRV Z-Score is approaching historic value zones of almost 0.37, while the STH-MVRV The reading of 0.84 shows that short-term bondholders remain under pressure.
Therefore, Bitcoin appears to be shifting from distribution to stabilization, although stronger demand remains essential.
Final summary
- Bitcoin [BTC] is showing signs of stabilization as selling pressure and realized activity decrease, but sustained demand on the spot market has not materialized.
- Bitcoin maintains strong long-term conviction due to increasing investor accumulation, although confirmation of the recovery still depends on stronger buying participation.