At the start of the second quarter of 2026, financial advisor Benjamin Cowen expressed concerns about Bitcoin’s sharp decline. He points out that the price has fallen almost 50% from an all-time high in October of $126,000 to $60,000.
Although Bitcoin has since recovered above $70,000 and was trading at $74,409.33 at the time of writing, Cowen warns that concerns remain. To which Cowen commented:
This is only a partial reset of a late-cycle environment characterized by restrictive liquidity, weak participation and limited market breadth.
The analyst noted weak demand and high liquidity in the market. However, he also believes there is still room for lateral movement rather than a direct crash. Given the market dynamics, Cowen has advised investors to focus on “capital preservation with selective tactical deployment.”
Is altcoin season coming?
Cowen further suggested that in the current market dynamics, the money is concentrated in Bitcoin and not in altcoins. Needless to say, this begs a question: if Bitcoin falls, will altcoins rise? But the Bitcoin dominance data, according to TradingView, trading at 59.69%, confirmed that Bitcoin still dominated.
CoinMarketCap’s altcoin index further reflected this sentiment.
However, this is not enough, as Cowen emphasized that real interest, social participation and cooling data on the chain still show tension in the market.
Ergo, Cowen said it best when he noted:
The current environment is best characterized by time-based capitulation, where excesses are unwound through long-term consolidation and periodic rallies rather than a single, rapid phase of liquidation.
Do the on-chain metrics reflect a similar sentiment?
CryptoQuant’s recent report confirmed this fear in Q2 2026 and reiterated the same. The report highlighted how Bitcoin’s price (at the time of reporting) was back to its highest level since February 4, 2026.
However, an in-depth look made it clear that the rally was only strong from the outside. In reality, BTC had an average purchase price for short-term traders, which acted as a “powerful bear market resistance level.”
Based on previous references, the report underlines that in such scenarios, the price usually makes the effort to move higher, but is often rejected. Additionally, the Bitcoin Exchange Inflow chart reported that 11,000 Bitcoin was moved to exchanges, further indicating that traders were preparing to sell.
In fact, profit taking was also minimal: $500 million per day, compared to $1 billion in recent bearish cycles.
However, BitMine’s Tom Lee also warned of a near-term sell-off before the market actually takes off.
Final summary
- Benjamin Cowen warns of a sell-off phase in Q2 2026 as Bitcoin has hit a 50% decline from October’s ATH.
- The Bitcoin price, exchange rate inflows, and CryptoQuant’s analysis of daily realized profits confirm the ongoing bearish sentiment.