The price of Bitcoin has fluctuated wildly since 2022.
In 2022, the cryptocurrency market experienced a “crypto winter,” falling from a market cap of $1.2 trillion to $319 billion. The crypto market was under a lot of pressure due to events such as the collapse of Terra/Luna, the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes, and the FTX bankruptcy.
However, by 2024, the market cap had returned almost $2 trillion.
Thanks to the introduction of the Spot Bitcoin [BTC] and Ethereum exchange-traded funds, the crypto market could retreat in 2024.
Now, in early 2026, tensions in the Middle East had put further pressure on the crypto market. But amid such events, Bitcoin’s volatility remained strong, “keeping volatility broadly in line with the major tech stocks.”
Ecoinometry noted,
Since late 2022, Bitcoin has sometimes even traded with lower volatility than Nvidia.
They put it well when they said:
Bitcoin is no longer behaving like an outlier in the market.
Bitcoin vs Nvidia
The charts of Nvidia against Bitcoin supported the narrative that showed how the crypto market was increasingly behaving like a major macro asset.
Despite being a stock, Nvidia’s trading momentum has been very aggressive because of the AI story. There were times when NVDA was more momentum-driven and speculative than Bitcoin.
Bitcoin vs Gold and More
Moreover, the Bitcoin/Gold ratio indicated that it is still significantly higher than in 2023, even after the 2026 decline.
This implies that Bitcoin has structurally risen against gold over the past cycle, supporting the idea that BTC is becoming a more competitive global store of value.
The sentiment was also echoed by the Bitcoin Archive on At the same time, the S&P 500 recovered 16%.
Glassnode’s realized volatility analysis reinforced this story as short-term volatility has still been explosive at times, but long-term volatility has gradually declined.
However, concerns remain as the 2024 Bitcoin cycle saw fewer parabolic rallies and less price growth than the cycles that occurred in 2012, 2016, and 2020.
In conclusion, BloFin Research put it best when they noted:
Bitcoin’s current cycle has dramatically underperformed all previous ones.
Final summary
- Bitcoin is becoming less of a speculative asset and more akin to the volatility of big tech stocks.
- Despite brief fluctuations, the lower realized volatility indicates a maturing Bitcoin market.