Bitcoin rose almost 15% in April despite the risk reduction ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision, stalled US-Iran talks and likely volatility during the appointment of the new Fed chairman in May.
Bulls reached almost $80,000. Unfortunately, they quickly faltered before crossing the level. But can the Fed meeting reignite bull momentum? Or will the ‘sell in May and go away’ trend overwhelm the uptrend and reverse the gains?
What’s next for Bitcoin after the Fed’s interest rate decision?
During the month of March, Bitcoin defended $65,000 as support. In April, the country used the bailout as a springboard to raise $80,000, thanks to its safe haven status during the West Asian crisis, a series of short squeezes and strong ETF inflows.
So far in April, Spot BTC ETFs have attracted $2.3 billion, the highest monthly inflows since the October crash. This was almost double the demand in March ($1.3 billion), sending BTC to a local high of $79.4K.
But even ETF investors have reduced their risks ahead of the Fed’s interest rate decision. The products saw daily outflows of $263 million on Monday, April 27. In response, BTC reversed some of its gains and briefly fell below $76,000.
At the same time, WTI crude oil prices also surged higher, briefly breaching the $100 mark, further spooking markets across the board.
However, for Singapore-based crypto trading desk QCP Capital, BTC’s setup could still prove positive, provided ETF flows remain steady.
Despite the volatility in the headlines. The broader design remains constructive, but confirmation is still needed.
Interestingly, Bitcoin price momentum strengthened QCP analysts’ outlook. The recent short price rejection occurred at a major confluence area.
The $80K-$82K zone is a confluence of the True Market Mean, the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis, and the US Spot ETF Cost Basis.
If we were to move above the zone, the market would essentially swing from distress to broad profitability. Andre Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Europe, further emphasized the importance of this threshold, noting:
Until we regain this level, we will remain in the late stages of a bear phase, which is characterized by seller exhaustion.
In other words, if Bitcoin definitively stays above $80,000, it would turn the current market structure into a bull market. The question now is: can BTC reverse the May level?
May’s dilemma: will BTC survive a summer lull?
As previously mentioned, May will be full of volatility. First, the US-Iran talks have not yet reached a peaceful agreement, at least at the time of writing.
Second, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s term expires on May 15. FundStrat reports this Tom Leethe appointment of Kevin Warsh as the new Fed chairman is likely to lead to market volatility.
Finally, BTC is experiencing the typical summer lull associated with the US stock markets, which is commonly described as “sell in May and go.”
Based on BTC’s seasonal data, the month of May has an average return of 8%, and June is the second worst month with a gain of -0.14%. These two factors could lead to more Bitcoin losses in June, after a potential surge in May.
However, it is worth pointing out that sometimes the market tends to go against the crowd.
As such, a rally caused by a short squeeze cannot be overruled if bearish trading is overcrowded. And speaking of short squeezes, there was a cluster of short positions and orders over $3 million between $80.4K and $82K.
Therefore, the liquidity setup also amplified BTC’s potential move to $82K during the next phase of volatility.
Still, QCP Capital analysts warned:
Whether this move becomes another bull trap or a more sustainable recovery will likely depend on BTC’s ability to close above 82k. There is a CME gap around that level, making it the most important area to look for direction confirmation.
Joint, statistics in the chainliquidity heatmaps and analysts all suggest that BTC could make progress despite the recent pullback. In fact, a strong recovery of $80,000 to $82,000 as support would turn the medium-term structure into an early bull market phase.
However, bulls must deal with prolonged volatility as the crisis in West Asia continues and the summer stalls. For Bitfinex analysts, the rally saw Spot BTC ETFs absorb 4K-6K BTC daily and could only stop if they saw daily outflows reach 6K-10K BTC.
Final summary
- Spot BTC ETFs saw inflows of more than $2 billion in April, a “constructive” setup for a rally in May if demand continues.
- However, the $80,000-$82,000 range is a crucial zone that could make or break the momentum of the early 2026 bull market.