Dogecoin is showing new signs of weakness as the BTC pair collapses sharply, dragging its price structure into bearish territory. Of momentum fades and key support levels give way, attention now shifts to confirmation of the USDT pair.
Breakdown of BTC pairs leads to Dogecoin bearish bias
The latest version of Umair Crypto analysis highlights a significant collapse as the DOGE/BTC pair hit a 68-day low, breaking critical support. While the overall trend is clearly bearish, the USDT pair has yet to trigger a broader sell-off.
The BTC pair continues to show weakness; a drop below 1.57% would mark a new 180-day low. While the USDT pattern remains technically intact for now, the underlying vulnerability is clear. Market participants are waiting for a confirmed break from the current range to initiate short positions, with primary targets in the $0.07 region.
On-chain data recently showed a whale moving 327 million Dogecoin from Robinhood, leading to a brief 1% bounce to $0.092. Despite this local strength, momentum indicators are faltering across the board. Without a significant catalyst, such as a renewed Elon Musk or government-related initiative, the technical collapse of the BTC pair is expected to take the lead.
The cooling of previous hype cycles indicates that the path of least resistance has turned downward. Once USDT support officially breaks, it will likely clear the path for a move towards the 7 cents range.
Elliott Wave Theory maps the bigger picture
In a recent Dogecoin macro updateCG Trades pointed to the explosive rally of 2024, where Dogecoin rose almost 500% from its lows, delivering an overall move of 6x and a gain of around 5x from the identified weekly breakout. That move marked one of the strongest performances in the altcoin space during the cycle.
However, since December 2024, the momentum has turned sharply. Dogecoin was under pressure and fell along with the broader altcoin market, in line with earlier warnings of a cool-off after the euphoric run-up.
Examining the broader picture through Elliott Wave Theory, the structure suggests that a long-term cycle is unfolding. Wave 1 will be completed around the January 2018 altcoin peak, followed by Wave 2 in March 2020 after a retest of the long-term trendline. Wave 3 peaked in May 2021, with the market currently having completed or still completing Wave 4 in June 2022 near the key support zone at $0.061349.
From this perspective, the expected Wave 5 could provide a major expansion, with a projected target around $1.41, representing a potential move of 15x from current levels, or up to 23x if the price reaches the $0.061349 region again before recovering. However, a month-end close below that level would negate the bullish macro outlook and signal a deeper structural shift.