As Ethereum (ETH) retests a major level for the first time this month, some market watchers have warned that the start of a new bull run may not yet have arrived.
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After rising nearly 10%, Ethereum is trying to regain a crucial area that has served as a key resistance zone since the early February crash. Over the past two months, the King of Altcoins has been trading sideways, hovering between the $1,800-$2,200 levels.
As the altcoin crosses the $2,150-$2,200 area, some market observers warned investors not to celebrate just yet, arguing that ETH has failed to hold this level despite multiple retests during this period.
Analyst Ted Pillows confirmed that as long as Ethereum remains above the $2,200 level, it could make a move towards last month’s high around $2,400, but warned investors not to “confuse it with the start of a bull run,” suggesting new lows will emerge between Q2 and Q3 of 2026.
Similarly, market watcher Crypto Scient advised investors not to “confuse positioning with guessing,” explaining that the cryptocurrency has not yet broken out of the macro downtrend that started last October.
According to the chart, Ethereum is currently near macro trend resistance while still respecting a Lower High (LH) structure. For him, this is “the place where most people flee and are cut to pieces.”
Scient argued that even if the bottom is reached and ETH’s bull run has begun, “the money won’t be made under this trend. It will be made once the price breaks above it.”
Nevertheless, price must rise above the trend, turn it into support and show acceptance above it before investors can call it a true reversal. “Until that happens, this is just another test in a downward trend,” he claimed.
Important levels to watch
Ali Martinez shared “the ultimate accumulation zones” for Ethereum, outlining some potential scenarios for its price. In the first case, the cryptocurrency could be trading in a multi-year ascending triangle, with the $1,800 level being the “line in the sand.”
As he explained, this price point acts as the hypotenuse of the triangle and, if it holds, could trigger a rally towards the $4,900 x-axis. This level also aligns “almost perfectly” with the 0.80 MVRV price band, located around $1,880.
The 0.80 band “is a reliable indicator of cycle bottoms” because historically it indicates where sellers exhaust themselves and “Strong Hands” take over, Martinez pointed out.
Meanwhile, in the second scenario, Ethereum could move within a parallel channel, risking another 30%-50% correction towards the channel lows between $1,150 and $1,170. Martinez highlighted that the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) shows huge clusters of ETH purchased between $2,079 and $1,882.
The URPD also shows that below $1,880 the main buying walls are at $1,584, $1,238 and $1,089, meaning that if the February lows are lost, the price would reach those levels.
“While accumulation is happening in the $1,000s, the ‘Start Engine’ for the next big rally is the Realized Price of $2,500,” the analyst noted, adding that when Ethereum reclaims its Realized Price, it has historically meant the average holder returns to profit and the “cooling off” period has concluded.
“A clear breakout and a hold above $2,500 is my main trigger for the start of a new macro bull rally,” Martinez concluded.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com