Bitcoin’s brief rally above $73,000 over the past day has the feel of a price performance that could still fade, fast, loud and familiar to anyone who has watched bear market rebounds fail.
What is different this time is not the price pressure, but the increasing alignment of signals pointing to a possible transition out of negative peak momentum.
For context: Swissblock’s momentum framework showed that Bitcoin climbed out of a deep negative zone that tended to appear near major transitions.
According to the company:
“We are exiting negative peak momentum, the kind of transition that often precedes a regime change. The key test now is simple: can consolidate and maintain momentum above +0.5. That +0.5 zone is the point of no return, where caution begins to give way to expansion.”
This is because the flagship digital asset has seen several market indicators, including demand for ETFs and indicators related to selling behavior, all improve at the same time.
However, none of them declare a new bull market on their own. Instead, they outline the preconditions for regime change if the improvement holds.
This is why CryptoQuant continues to claim that Bitcoin conditions remain bearish despite the current upside. The Bull Score Index remains extremely low at 10 out of 100, a reading that indicates that the broader set of indicators associated with a bullish regime has not yet recovered.
The split matters because markets often start to change before they look healthy. Regime change today does not require bullish conditions. It requires deterioration to stop, then improvement to continue.
Demand is improving, mainly because demand is no longer deteriorating
The clearest “what’s changed” signal isn’t a burst of new buying. It’s the easing of the demand contraction, a shift from bad to not so bad, that could matter more than it sounds.
CryptoQuant’s estimation of ‘apparent demand’ for Bitcoin suggests that the contraction in spot demand has improved from around -136,000 BTC in early 2026 to around -25,000 BTC more recently.
The timing aligns with Bitcoin building support since early February, a shift that looks less like a breakout and more like early evidence that the market can absorb supply without continuing to slide.
The nuance is crucial because even though -25,000 BTC is still negative, BTC transitions often start this way: demand weakens, volatility decreases, and the price becomes more sensitive to incremental changes in flows.
That’s the stage where rallies can start to behave more like early accumulation and less like purely mechanical pressure.
Another part of the demand picture is the return of a US-led bid.
CryptoQuant says the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium, a measure of U.S. buying pressure, moved from deep negative territory to its most positive level since October in early February.
This was mainly driven by spot Bitcoin ETFs, which saw net inflows of approximately $917 million in the first week of this month.
This marks a significant difference from their performance during the first two months of the year, when they recorded net outflows of over $1.8 billion.
In practical terms, this suggests that the marginal buyer is returning to US spot demand as the market tests the limits of the regime.
Selling pressure decreases and the price can move quickly as supply decreases
The price doesn’t always need a stream of new buyers to rise. It could jump if the market stops leaking supply.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that selling pressure from traders has subsided after unrealized losses reached levels last seen in July 2022.
When a large portion of traders are already underwater, the incentive to sell at margin often decreases. Capitulation can deplete supply in the short run, and less incremental demand is needed to push the price up.
At the same time, long-term owners also appear to be scaling back their sales activities.
Data from CryptoQuant shows that sales to long-term holders have fallen to the slowest 30-day pace since June 2025, from around 904,000 BTC in late November to around 276,000 BTC more recently.
That does not guarantee a new bull market. However, it does remove one of the bear market’s most persistent accelerators: a steady distribution of holders who bought much lower and are willing to sell as they strengthen.
It also explains why momentum models can quickly reverse once demand stabilizes, as supply pressures no longer push downward on every rally attempt.
Resistance levels double as a regimen test
The short-term battlefield is clear and the levels are not arbitrary.
CryptoQuant points to $79,000 as the first major resistance, the lower band of traders’ realized price on the chain, a level that has historically served as a ceiling in bear phases.
Above that, a bigger hurdle lies around $90,000, close to the traders’ own realized price, which capped prices during a previous rally earlier this year.
These levels are important because they approximate the cost base of the active cohort.
In bear markets, that cohort often sells off rallies to get back to par, turning the cost basis into resistance. In bull markets, behavior may change once the price returns to this level, with previous resistance being defended as support.
That’s why the move above $73,000 is not the finish line. It’s the approach to the line.
If Bitcoin breaks through $79,000 and then holds, while demand continues to improve, it would strengthen the argument that momentum is shifting to an expansionary regime.
If it declines and momentum cannot sustain above Swissblock’s +0.5 threshold, there is a risk the rally could be written off as another upswing.
Three programs for the next 4 to 12 weeks
As Bitcoin attempts to exit negative momentum, the next phase will likely be defined less by headlines and more by whether the market can sustain its improvements.
One outcome is a failed flip. Momentum does not remain above Swissblock’s +0.5 threshold, spot market demand remains negative and ETF flows are leveling off.
Here, BTC price is likely to reject near $79,000 and drift back towards the recent support zone, a reset that would fit into a bear market structure.
A second outcome is heel and base. Momentum is hovering around the threshold, apparent demand is slowly improving but not turning positive, and flows remain mixed.
In this case, the price of BTC continues to fluctuate for weeks, building a base that makes a later breakout more credible, even if it tests patience.
The third result is real regime change. Momentum remains above +0.5 for weeks, apparent demand turns positive, ETF inflows continue, and derivatives prices become less defensive.
Price demands back $79,000, challenges $90,000 and begins to turn past resistance into support, a hallmark of a structural shift.
For now, the rally is best understood as an attempt at transition. The selling pressure decreases. Demand is stabilizing. The momentum is trying to move to a higher regime. The evidence is deceptively simple: not that Bitcoin can peak, but that it can sustain.