As volatility continues to weigh on sentiment, investors are eyeing a key level that bulls simply cannot break. Otherwise, this could lead to massive liquidity cleanups. This in turn would delay any recovery efforts.
Specifically, analysts are targeting $60,000 for Bitcoin [BTC]and called it a potential liquidation trigger. Huge amounts of loans and liquidity are stacked at this level, making this a real make-or-break point for the bulls.
From a technical perspective, this level is also reinforced by Bitcoin’s 200-week moving average. Historically, BTC signals a healthy uptrend when BTC stays above this trendline, while a break below it could scare bulls.
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, exchange data underscored the potential costs at stake.
Deribit data showed that the largest concentration of put options is below $60,000, totaling $1.24 billion, meaning most traders are betting on a decline beyond this level. Analysts warn that if BTC breaks $60kit could slide towards $50,000, where the second largest group of put positions are located.
In short, Bitcoin’s options volatility is heavily stacked, meaning a breakdown would lead to successive liquidations. The bigger question, of course, is whether the market is strong enough to stay above this level.
Options volatility and macro FUD puts $60,000 to the test
At the time of writing, the market was only 15% confident that BTC would remain above this level.
On a bearish note, that is 85% of traders expect Bitcoin to break below. When we look at both the on-chain activity and the macro indicators, that probability really starts to carry weight, increasing the pressure on the bulls.
Glassnode data pointed out that Bitcoin Options Open Interest climbed back to its late Q4 2025 high, with the same value at 452,000 BTC, up from 255,000 BTC. That’s a significant jump of 77% – evidence of growing merchant positioning.
Source: Glassnode
On the macro side, the FUD returned as the US Supreme Court set the date for February 20 long-awaited verdict on President Donald Trump’s tariff case, adding a new layer of uncertainty for traders.
In the meantime, market sentiment persists heavily bearishmeaning that even a small move in Bitcoin could trigger a complete capitulation. All told, the situation is fragile, with significant pressure on bulls around $60,000.
In this environment, the market’s 85% probability could very well hold true.
Final summary
- A break below $60,000 could trigger back-to-back liquidations, with the next cluster of puts around $50,000.
- In light of bearish sentiment, macro uncertainty, and an upcoming U.S. Supreme Court ruling, the 85% probability could very well hold.