Journalist
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Macro signals continue to defy mainstream expectations.
This week the market was put through a stress test with back-to-back data declines, and as of now it appears bulls are absorbing the volatility, especially as incoming data continues to surprise analysts without causing a meaningful downside.
Bitcoins [BTC] technical design reinforces that image. Despite the FUD, BTC remains above its early February low near $59,000. The most important question now is of course: does this resilience actually signal a market bottom?
CPI relief sharpens the divide between bulls and bears
Lately, macro prints have been causing sharp sentiment swings in Bitcoin.
Take the latest jobs report. This came out “stronger than expected”, which strengthened the resilience of the US labor market. However, that quickly led to a clash between bulls and bears over what this means for the path of rate cuts.
Then, on February 13, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, which stood at 2.4%, below the expected 2.5%, quickly shifting the debate back in favor of the bulls.
Source: TradingEconomics
The response was quick. Bitcoin ended the day up 3.93%, marking its strongest intraday gain in two weeks. Bears, of course, took the hit short liquidations accounting for about 85% of the $267 million flushed.
That said, the real test of bullish belief is just beginning.
Technically, the bears are still leaning toward a breakout, where a dense liquidity cluster builds around a key price range. Unless Bitcoin “decisively” clears this range, the final move threatens to be just another short squeeze.
Bitcoin bulls need convincing amid on-chain pressure
Bears keep arguing that annual inflation remains high.
Notably, this difference in bull versus bear positioning around recent macro prints is now showing up across the chain. Bitcoin funding rates remain in the red, indicating a persistent short bias despite recent price resilience.
The result? A dense liquidity cluster on the short side forms between $70,000 and $75,000, with approximately $150 million worth of Bitcoin busy sellingmaking this a key resistance zone that the bulls need to clear to support the rally.
Source: CryptoQuant
The accumulation in the chain around Bitcoin’s current location is increasing. BTC ETFs saw an inflow of $15 million after two consecutive days of outflows, indicating a reversal, but the trend is still too weak to produce any meaningful upside for BTC.
The bigger picture? Even with CPI lighting, American investors are not getting involvedwhere a correction is likely priced in before a commit is made. Taken together, this suggests that bulls will need more convincing to push Bitcoin out of its current predicament.
From a technical perspective, BTC’s nearly 4% rally appears to have been driven more by a short squeeze than actual buying pressure. If that momentum continues, the momentum could swing back to the bears and exit Bitcoin desires exposed to significant risk.
Final summary
- Bitcoin is facing key resistance as near-term liquidity increases between $70,000 and $75,000, with bulls struggling to convert the recent rally into sustainable momentum.
- This move appears to have been caused by a short squeeze, leaving Bitcoin longs exposed to downside risks.