The recent Bitcoin [BTC] A drop to $60,000 was not normal. In a post on
Statistically, such an outcome qualifies as a ‘Black Swan’ event, rare and unlikely. Yet this has happened since Bitcoin’s inception four times. This underlines how ‘Black Swan’ events are relatively common in crypto and highlights the magnitude of the latest price crash.
Source: Axel Adler Jr. on X
In one message on Xanalyst Axel Adler Jr noted that BTC was trading well below the realized price of $79.1k. AMBCrypto reported that major crypto assets had hit a 14-month low due to an increasingly strong correlation with US technology stocks.
According to digital asset manager Grayscale, the sell-off was also caused by the slow momentum of the CLARITY Act.
Bitcoin’s institutional selling pressure is increasing
Analyst Donkerfost pointed out that the Coinbase Premium gap was nearing its peak most negative point in 2026. It was especially compelling because this was the volume-weighted version, which helps reduce noise.
The negative difference means that the Bitcoin price on Coinbase is at a discount to the price on Binance. In other words, it implied heavy selling pressure from major US investors.
The scenario is challenging and highly uncertain for both long-term investors and traders.
The weekly low of $74.5k has been pushed aside. Although the current week’s trading has not yet closed, the drop to $60k has opened up the possibility of a much deeper retracement.
Source: BTC/USD on TradingView
Trader Ibrahim made an interesting argument for a potential Bitcoin bottom. In a message at CryptoQuant Insightsthe trader noted that the highest monthly close of the previous cycle was usually the bottom of the bear market.
If that is the case again, the $55,000-$60,000 area could be the bottom of the current bear market.
In the past, the approach to these monthly support zones has been slower than the breakneck bearish pace that Bitcoin has set since November 2025. Long-term investors may have weeks and months before they witness the real bottom of the market.
As such, they don’t need to be in a hurry to buy the market pain.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin’s price drop was a highly unlikely event, representing a -5.65σ move in the 200-day lookback period.
- It is unclear whether prices will fall further, but traders and investors should assume that the bottom of the market has not yet been reached.