Investors’ convictions are being tested again.
Over the past ten days, a significant group of holders have fallen underwater as key top cap assets failed to maintain key resistance levels. As a result, many traders who bought near the local top are now feeling the pressure.
Bitcoin [BTC] is no exception. Just ten days ago, BTC printed its second highest high, breaching the $95k level. However, the rally quickly faded, with the price rising above $97,000, causing several cohorts to suffer unrealized losses.
Source: TradingView (BTC/USDT)
Naturally, attention now turns to what could reignite HODLing.
Macro FUD and institutional selling are testing BTC’s resilience
The current macro settings do not provide much support. Volatility is already sending capital into safe havens as Bitcoin’s institutional bid continues to decline. proven with nearly $1.8 billion in ETF outflows in less than a week.
Meanwhile, GameStop also seems unconvinced. The on-chain wallets recently moved 100% of Bitcoin holdings to Coinbase Prime. Furthermore, looking at his BTC balancethis move likely indicates potential sales.
By mid-May 2025, the company collected 4,710 BTC at an average price of $107,000, betting $504 million. With BTC hovering around $90,000, this position indicates potential realized losses of around $76 million.
Source: CryptoQuant
All things considered, getting investors to HODL seems like a tough task.
Bitcoin’s institutional bid is weak and overall sentiment is low. And yet, the big players talk a Bitcoin ‘super cycle’. Are they seeing something that the market hasn’t yet priced in, or is this just another setup for a shakeout?
CZ signals Bitcoin ‘supercycle’, defying weak sentiment
Despite the macro FUD, the heavyweights are still optimistic about the BTC super cycle.
For 2026 the graph is from RR2Capital highlights three bold predictions, with an average of $215,000 as the final target for Bitcoin. Meanwhile, Binance founder CZ reiterated a similar view in a recent publication video interview.
The question remains, of course: what are they betting on? Statistics about the chain paint a cautious picture. Bitcoin’s bear momentum is building, with net realized gain/loss turning red as investors start to realize losses.
Source: CryptoQuant
Historically, these types of moves have been accompanied by deeper corrections.
That puts pressure on Bitcoin’s $85,000 support, driven by institutional selling, ETF outflows and waning conviction from heavyweights like GameStop. As a result, the motivation for investors to use HODL weakens.
In this context, bullish Bitcoin predictions appear less data-driven and more influenced by external factors such as volatility around the crypto accountan overheated metals market and the recent US withdrawal of EU tariffs.
This difference thus highlights the gap between market fundamentals and optimistic forecasts, attracting speculative capital and potentially putting Bitcoin in a liquidation trap. BTC leverage slopes up again.
Final thoughts
- Bitcoin fell from $97,000 to $90,000 due to institutional selling, ETF outflows and large holders like GameStop potentially selling.
- Despite cautious on-chain metrics, heavyweights like CZ are predicting a BTC “super cycle,” creating a divergence that could trigger a liquidation trap.