Bitcoin’s rise to $97,600 last week sparked a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues that the derivatives tape looked more like short-term positioning than broad conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a gap between demand for front-end calls and longer-term risk pricing, which remained anchored in downside protection.
“Let’s take a deeper look at options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge the conviction behind this move,” Glassnode wrote. The key takeaway: There was an upward flow, but it didn’t materially change how the market assessed risks further outside the curve.
What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally
First Glassnode focused skewed in the short term. Around mid-January, BTC rose about 8% in a few days, and the 1-week 25-delta skew moved sharply towards neutral from ‘deep put territory’. That kind of front-end shift can look like a market turning bullish until you check for the same repricing at longer maturities.
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“But be careful,” Glassnode warned. “Almost dated call question is often misinterpreted as a guiding belief.” The thread combined that point with flow data: the option volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling an increase in call activity. But, as Glassnode put it, the question is not whether calls were purchased, but how short-lived that demand actually was.
The longer dated photo was noticeably less enthusiastic. Glassnode said the 1-month 25-delta skew “only moved from 7% to 4% at the low point,” remaining in the asymmetry even as the 1-week skew dropped from 8% to 1%. At the three-month 25-delta skew, the shift was even smaller (less than 1.5%) and “remained firmly in the put area,” remaining an asymmetric downward trajectory.
That difference is important for Glassnode because it separates ‘flow’ from ‘risk prices’. Upside participation may be real, but if the market doesn’t reprice the maturity skew, it suggests traders aren’t extending that optimism to a more confident, longer-horizon view.
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The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Due to the stratification in ATM implied volatility, we see volume being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers made money on the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.”
That combination: the demand for front-end conversations in addition to the volume supply can correspond to a tactical positioning instead of a regime change. It can also make spot moves more vulnerable if follow-on purchases don’t materialize once short-term structures get off the ground.
Glassnode concluded with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot-pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction on durations, and volatility on offer. Last week’s move did not meet those conditions.”
For traders watching to see if BTC can revisit $97,600, the implication of the thread is clear: check to see if the longer duration skew starts to clear from the put area and if implied volatility is bid up rather than sold as key levels are retested.
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $89,297.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com