Bitcoin is down 36% from its recent peak, and the “bear market” label is already circulating in crypto
The core of Chifoi claim is that many commentators default to reactive stories after volatility has already spread. “The easiest way to determine if the Bitcoin bear market has started is not after we have had a 36% correction as all the crypto analysts online are suggesting,” he wrote. “The same analysts who suggested a supercycle in November 2021 as the price rose 100%+.” In his view, the question about the bear market is less about the size of the decline and more about whether any subsequent rebound looks like strength or a structurally weak counter-trend move that fails over time.
Is Bitcoin in a bear market?
Chifoi’s first lens is a cross-check between Bitcoin and USDT dominance (USDT.D), which he describes as an “inverted BTC chart” used as a confluence signal. He also emphasizes that timing is the most important indicator, arguing that the pullback has already reached a minimum duration that he tracks across cycles.
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“Whether you are a trader or not, I also suggest that you use time as your first indicator, and price as the second,” he wrote. “We already had a 77-day correction from top to bottom. The price could not be lower. That is the signal, rest is noise.”
From there, his bear market confirmation playbook depends on how far Bitcoin can bounce and how long it can maintain momentum. He outlines the USDT.D targets: first around 5.5%, then lower levels like 4.7% and ties these to potential BTC levels. A push “small above 100,000,” he said, could still qualify as a “dead cat bounce” if it continues for weeks without consequence. In that case, the rebound itself becomes evidence of weakness rather than a green light for a renewed uptrend.
His second scenario is more uncomfortable for “cycle is dead” skeptics and early-bear callers alike: Bitcoin makes a higher high, possibly in the $115,000-$120,000 range, but then stalls over a multi-week period. Even that, according to Chifoi, could be consistent with a transition into a bear market as time passes and the price cannot “capture more gains,” turning a nominal breakout into a distribution-like top.
“It’s the same game!” he added, arguing that traders should look for the same failure mode at different price levels, rather than anchoring on a single number.
Chifoi’s second framework is seasonality, centered on a period around January 20 (plus or minus a few days) that extends into late March or early April. He says he has been watching this as a key decision point since early 2026, and sees it as a fork between two paths: either Bitcoin ends up setting a pivot high on that date and rolling over, or it forms a pivot low around that date and then pushes higher into the next time.
“A pump into the Jan 20 $100-$110k range would mean a pivot high and the continuation to the next pivot,” he wrote. The alternative, he said, is to “pivot low on Jan. 20, then continue until the next pivot,” adding that he’s keeping an eye on this week’s price action “until Friday” for confirmation.
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At the time of writing, Chifoi leans toward the latter interpretation. “For now it seems pretty clear that we are developing a pivot low, and the next step is the opposite of what we had from October 6 to now,” he said.
Chifoi positions most market participants into two “camps”: those who call for a super cycle or declare that the cycle framework is broken, and those who argue that a bear market started in October and ends in October 2026 “just like 2022.” He argues that both could end up in bad positioning if Bitcoin makes a new high in the coming weeks before selling off after April.
His own risk scenario is broader and more time-oriented: a new high followed by a continued decline until late 2026 or early 2027, which he calls his “next major turning point.” In that context, the operational conclusion is less about predicting a bear market today and more about letting the next upswing and the January to Spring period determine whether this is a reset within a broader uptrend or the start of a longer transition from distribution to downtrend.
“Pay attention in the coming weeks,” Chifoi wrote. “I don’t know what will happen, but the plan is already in place and I will adjust my positioning accordingly, whatever scenario arises, because in both cases I already know what to do.”
At the time of writing, BTC was trading at $92,836.
Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com