The macro volatility in 2025 reignited the debate about ‘safe havens’.
But looking at the year-end, the verdict seems clear: Gold (XAU) dominated the story, rising nearly 65% to a record $4,500, reminding investors why gold has long been the ‘go-to’ asset during turbulent times.
That said, this wasn’t just a lucky streak. The US economy faced multiple shocks, from inflation to the federal shutdown, putting pressure on Bitcoin [BTC] safe haven story under pressure, ultimately causing the year to decline by 6.30%.
Source: TradingView (GOLD/USD)
Essentially, capital prioritized safety over risk as macroeconomic pressures increased.
However, 2025 ended with a noticeable shift. November inflationfor example, fell to 2.7%, which represents a decline of 0.3% on a monthly basis recent lectures like the core CPI and PCE, they have fallen below the Fed’s 2% target.
On paper, this sets the stage for capital to rotate back into Bitcoin. But when we look at fourth quarter performance vs tokenized gold [XAUT]the preference for XAUT remains clear. XAUT rose 13% in the fourth quarter, while BTC fell 24%.
Naturally, the question arises: is this difference no longer about volatility, but about the search for safe returns? If so, could the growing positioning in XAUT be an early signal of a repeat divergence heading into 2026?
Investors look to XAUT amid changing capital flows
It appears that China is single-handedly pushing markets towards metals.
First, it was silver. Chinas export ban led to a parabolic rally of 147% through 2025, putting silver at the top of the asset performance leaderboard. As China turns its attention to gold mining, the situation feels familiar.
For context, China’s largest gold producer, Zijin Mining, is ramping up foreign acquisitions. After gold’s explosive run in 2025, this move doesn’t seem random. Instead, it reflects expectations of continued demand.
Source: TradingView (XAUT/USDT)
In this context, XAUT’s strong performance is no coincidence.
After closing out 2025 with a 65% rally, investors are clearly not done yet. Look at chain marked a whale who lost $18.8 million trading Ethereum [ETH]thus converting ETH into gold and strengthening the market thesis.
Meanwhile, six wallets scooped an increase of 3,102 XAUT, with $13.7 million spent. Taken together, these moves appear to be early positioning, indicating that investors are strategically shifting capital in anticipation of macro developments.
For Bitcoin? 2026 could repeat 2025’s difference.
Final thoughts
- XAUT performs better as investors move towards safety, with whales and linked portfolios positioning themselves ahead of macro shifts.
- Bitcoin is under pressure as Chinese metals rise and early accumulation of XAUT signals a possible repeat of the 2025-style divergence.