Canada-based mining magnate Frank Giustra believes Bitcoin can still fall further and provide a better buying opportunity beyond the current $88,000 level.
When a user begged him to buy some BTC in case it exploded in the future, he said he would wait for a better discount. He added,
“If the Bitcoin Treasury companies get into trouble, there will be an end and Bitcoin will trade much lower. If I’m wrong, it won’t change my life.”
The businessman is one of the bears in 2026, based on his claim that BTC government bonds would soon go bankrupt.
In fact, he took a swipe at former White House Director Bo Hines for calling BTC short sellers.”fools.” He responded that “wanting to avoid gambling is not exactly foolish.”
Will BTC government bonds disappear in 2026?
At the time of writing, Bitcoin government bonds, led by Strategy’s massive 672,497 BTC coins, accounted for 4.9% of the total supply (1.035 million coins). These publicly traded companies are the second largest holders, after ETFs (exchange traded funds), which control 7% of the total supply.
It is true that financial institutions may experience bankruptcies due to two risk factors. Firstly, the potential exclusion from the MSCI index, which could lead to automatic redemption and sell-off.
Currently the prediction site is Polymarket predicts a 75% chance that the MSCI Index will be listed in the first quarter of 2026.
The second risk factor is the compressed mNAV (valuation multiples that track the value of crypto holdings relative to the underlying company’s assets). If the mNAV falls below 1, the companies are forced to either raise debt or liquidate BTC for share buybacks to boost the benchmark.
The mNAVs of most BTC government bonds are already trading at a discount, and a likely delisting from MSCI could worsen the situation.
Is BTC’s Treasury Risk Exaggerated?
However, according to Grayscale, it will not move the markets even if the companies go bankrupt. In its 2026 projection, the asset manager noted that Strategy had built up a reserve fund to prevent its BTC holdings from being liquidated. It added,
“It is unlikely, in our view, that these vehicles (treasuries) will be a significant source of new demand for tokens or a significant source of selling pressure in 2026.”
Even the market expectation that the strategy would dump its BTC was less than 30% at the time of writing. Moreover, there is already an urge for it mergers among distressed financial institutions, such as Semler Scientific and Strive.
That said, well-known BTC trader Cryp Nuevo projected that BTC’s correction could ease to $74,000 – a level that coincided with BTC mining fees halting after major pullbacks.
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Final thoughts
- A potential BTC treasury crisis and its recovery could provide better buying opportunities.
- However, the discount should not be less than $74,000 if history repeats itself.