According to recent interviews, billionaire investor Ray Dalio has tightened his caution about Bitcoin’s suitability for official reserves, while still recognizing its scarce nature.
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He said Bitcoin has cash-like qualities due to its limited supply, but he drew a clear line on who should hold it on the balance sheet.
Dalio said public transaction data and the risk of outside interference make it difficult for reserve managers to treat Bitcoin the same as gold.
Dalio highlights traceability concerns
Dalio warned that the open ledger underlying Bitcoin creates vulnerabilities for large custodians. He argued that public transactions can be traced and, in some scenarios, interrupted, raising concerns among institutions charged with protecting national wealth.
NEW: RAY DALIO SAYS BITCOIN “LIKELY NOT TO BE SUBSTANTIALLY HELD BY CENTRAL BANKS” – TRANSACTIONS ARE TOO TRANSPARENT, GOVERNMENT CAN GET INTO THEM
— DEGEN NEWS (@DegenerateNews) December 20, 2025
He contrasted this with gold, which he said becomes harder for authorities to control once it is taken out of the formal financial system.
He also raised security concerns, including the possibility that Bitcoin could be cracked, broken or controlled in ways that would change its long-term usefulness as a store of value.
Stablecoins seen as transactional tools
Based on reports, Dalio also gave a low rating to stablecoins as long-term investments. He pointed out that stablecoins are tied to fiat currencies and generally don’t pay interest, making them work well for quick transfers but not for wealth preservation.
He said he personally retains some exposure to Bitcoin – “a little bit” – but puts gold first if the goal is an asset protected from state action.
Last year, Dalio urged investors to choose scarce assets such as gold and Bitcoin over debt instruments, as many major economies struggle with rising debt.
Institutional demand and market signals
Crypto markets are moving closer to mainstream funding with spot Bitcoin ETFs and improved custody services, and the market structure is shifting.
BTC will reach $250,000 by the end of 2027. 2026 is too chaotic to predict, although it is possible that Bitcoin will reach new all-time highs in 2026. The options markets are currently pricing an even odds of $70,000 or $130,000 for the month of June 2026, and an even odds of $50,000 or $250,000 by the end of the year…
— Alex Thorn (@intangiblecoins) December 21, 2025
According to Galaxy Research, overlapping macro and market risks make it unusually difficult to predict Bitcoin in 2026. The team at Galaxy says option prices and volatility trends show Bitcoin is behaving more like a macro asset than a pure high-growth gamble.
The same research group nonetheless maintained a bullish stance on the long term, predicting that Bitcoin could reach $250,000 by the end of 2027.
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Macro signals and price outlooks
This mix of views highlights a separation between policy appropriateness and price potential. Dalio’s focus is on whether governments will accept the assets on a reserve ledger; Galaxy’s analysis looks at how markets may price Bitcoin under changing macro forces.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView