XRPs recent drop to $2 hasn’t changed the broader technical picture, according to a new analysis shared on X by crypto analyst Egrag Crypto. Despite the lack of bullish price action in recent weeks, the technical analysis suggests that the market structure continues to favor an upward continuation rather than the end of the trend.
This outlook puts the next three to six months in a constructive zone for XRP price action, where further upside potential is more likely. then the risk of a downward movement.
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XRP currently in consolidation, not in distribution
Egrag’s technical analysis rating is based on XRP’s price action currently checking a list of boxes that indicate the next move is up. The first of these boxes is what the analyst called a regime shift, which occurred after the XRP price made a decisive breakout from a multi-year base around $0.5 last year.
This decisive breakout shifted the market from accumulation to expansion. Pullbacks in this phase are generally corrective and not trend-ending. In that context is the current price action can be seen as part of a natural pause rather than a signal that the larger bullish move has failed.
Another central argument in the analysis is that current price behavior represents consolidation rather than distribution. Egrag Crypto describes the market as being in a compression phase after a boost, and this is a break, not a top. Although XRP has operated within this structure for approximately 13 months, the analyst interpreted this as an extensive consolidation rather than a distribution process.
Chart image of X. Source: @egragcrypto on X
EMA structure keeps bullish bias intact
Another reason why the trend is likely bullish is because XRP is still trading in line with its long-term exponential moving average, which remains above the 21 EMA. That relationship maintains the bullish bias even though the price is currently below the faster 9 EMA, but this only reflects short-term weakness rather than a structural collapse.
In addition to the pure chart structure, fundamental developments have made the arguments for longer-term valuation even more important. XRP is currently holding $2 as a key support zone, and recent developments have emerged that could increase bullish sentiment.
An example is that of Ripple conditional approval next other crypto companies for a national trust banking charter from the U.S. Office of the Comptroller of the Coin.
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While the outlook is much more bullish, there is always the possibility that it could turn bearish within the next six months. According to Egrag, this outlook could only turn bearish if XRP records a sustained monthly close below the $1.80 to $1.60 region.
All told, the analysis concludes that XRP is more likely to resolve higher than lower over the next three to six months, even if there is price volatility along the way.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView