Key Takeaways
Where is Bitcoin traded now?
BTC decisively broke below $90,000 on November 20, embracing the lower Bollinger Band and testing the S3 pivot zone in the mid-$80,000s.
What does the CMF indicator display?
Chaikin money flow is currently at -0.15, indicating continued distribution rather than accumulation, and there is no bullish divergence yet.
Bitcoin pushed a strong red candle on the daily chart, decisively falling below the psychological level of $90,000 and hugging the lower Bollinger Band.
The 20-day Bollinger midline is just above $100,000, which now marks major resistance. The upper band around $113,000 is well above the spot price, underscoring how dramatically Bitcoin has fallen in a short time.
The bandwidth has expanded significantly, which is usually accompanied by phases of trend acceleration and not calm consolidation. As long as BTC continues to close near or below the lower band, sellers remain in control and volatility works against bulls.
Pivot points and fib levels mark the next down zones
Bitcoin is currently testing the S3 pivot area in the mid-$80,000s, which matches today’s daily low.
If this zone fails to hold at close, the chart will open deeper support around $80,000-$82,000, where prior demand and the Fibonacci confluence meet.
Below that level, an extended downside projection of 1,618 in the low $70,000 region becomes the next major capitulation target if selling accelerates further.
Source: TradingView
On the upside, the first sign of bears losing control would require a clean retracement of $90,000 to get back within the prior range, followed by the Bollinger midline near $100,000, which also coincides with key Fib resistance.
Until BTC recovers at least around $90,000, the rallies appear to be an upswing within a broader downtrend.
CMF shows persistent outflow, not silent accumulation
The Chaikin Money Flow indicator is currently at -0.15, firmly in negative territory. Readings below -0.05 generally indicate distribution and not accumulation.
The indicator does not yet show a clear bullish divergence between the CMF and the price, suggesting that flows continue to deteriorate as the price falls.
This supports the view that real selling and de-risking are driving this decline, not just a quick stop-run or technical shakeout.
Bitcoin long squeeze confirmed by liquidation data
Mint glass liquidation data supports what the spot chart suggests. On November 20, long positions lost about $366 million, while short positions gave up only $26 million.
Most of the damage affected highly indebted locations. Bybit and Hyperliquid each recorded more than $90 million in long-term liquidations. Binance also recorded tens of millions in forced long closures.
Source: Coinglass
This profile shows that over-indebted bulls are being forced out, rather than shorts suddenly entering.
As long as open interest remains high and price remains near support, the market remains vulnerable to another decline if BTC cannot regain resistance levels.
How much lower can BTC go from here?
The market is in an important decision zone. Immediate support remains in the mid-$80,000s [current S3 pivot]. Deeper support and demand converge around $80,000-$82,000. The capitulation extension targets the low $70,000 region, based on 1,618 Fib projections.
A decisive daily close above $90,000, ideally followed by a return of the CMF to neutral, would signal that downside momentum is fading.
Until then, the combination of price lock-in at the lower Bollinger Band, negative CMF values, and heavy long liquidations suggests that traders should view BTC as being in an active downside phase.
The $80K area will be the next critical level to watch if today’s support gives way.