Key Takeaways
How Much Have Bitcoin New Whales Lost Recently?
Bitcoin new whales recorded over $1 billion in losses from October 28 to November 8, with the worst day being November 7.
What is the capitulation risk for the Bitcoin price?
With new whales underwater and weak technical momentum, the risk of panic selling increases if BTC fails to regain the critical breakeven level of $110,800.
Bitcoin new whales have suffered over $1 billion in losses in the past week as BTC trades below their average cost basis of $110,800.
The massive losses raise concerns about a possible capitulation of recent large-scale buyers who accumulated at higher prices.
CryptoQuant Data shows new whales have suffered significant daily losses since October 28. The worst day came on November 7, when new whales lost $515.1 million in one session.
Source: CryptoQuant
On November 4, $286.4 million in losses were reported, followed by $107.5 million on November 6 and $90.7 million on November 5.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $106,000, which is about 4.4% below the new whale cost basis. This underwater position puts pressure on the cohort that has built up a strong position in 2025.
The accumulation of new Bitcoin whales will explode in 2025
Data shows that Bitcoin whale addresses active in the last 24 hours have exploded from around 150,000 BTC in early 2024 to over 450,000 BTC currently.
This threefold increase demonstrates unprecedented accumulation by new large holders during Bitcoin’s rally towards October’s all-time high of $126,296.
Source: CryptoQuant
These new whales bought aggressively as Bitcoin surged through $110,000 and beyond. As prices retreat, they face increasing unrealized losses on top of the realized losses already incurred.
The timing proves unfortunate for latecomers. Old whales have made gains in recent times, while new whales have gathered.
This difference between experienced and newer major investors could signal trouble if the trend continues.
The capitulation risk is increasing
The critical question now centers on whether new whales will survive their losses or capitulate.
Bitcoin briefly fell below $100,000 on November 4, the first time since June. The dip to $99,966 marked a 21% decline from the October peak.
Source: TradingView
Although BTC has since recovered to $106,000, the price remains stuck below the key $110,800 level, where new whales need Bitcoin to trade for breakeven.
Technical indicators point to weak momentum. The Money Flow Index stands at 43.15, indicating that there is no strong buying or selling pressure.
Whale flow data shows 0 million recent significant movements, suggesting major holders remain inactive and possibly indecisive.
What happens next
New whales face a difficult decision. They can either ride out the current losses and wait for Bitcoin to regain $110,800, or they can cut the losses and sell, potentially triggering a cascade of liquidations.
The $110,800 level now serves as critical resistance. Bitcoin needs to rise above this price to ease pressure on new whales and restore confidence among recent large-scale buyers.
Failure to do so increases the risk of capitulation sales, which could cause prices to drop significantly.
For now, the data shows that new whales are “feeling the heat,” as CryptoQuant noted, with losses mounting and prices showing little urgency to recover above their breakeven point.