Key Takeaways
Will Bitcoin still hold as US markets soften?
Yes. BTC remains above $100,000 even as the housing market falls and the S&P 500 moves lower.
What happens if BTC loses its current support?
A break below $100,000 could trigger a decline towards the $90,000-$95,000 zone.
Bitcoin [BTC] continues to hold, even as traditional markets show signs of tension. This resilience has led to talk of a liquidity shift to crypto if the Fed takes a more accommodative stance.
The start of house construction is a warning
Housing Starts (new private housing being built in the US) are rolling again. Until now, that has rarely been a neutral signal.
This is one of the first places where economic slowdowns manifest themselves: demand decreases, financing becomes more difficult and builders withdraw. The charts make it clearer: housing starts are trending downward, while the S&P 500 is hitting new highs.
Source: Alpharactal
This gap has not persisted in previous cycles.
Each time this pattern has occurred, stock volatility has followed, as earnings estimates have been revised and positioning has declined. The US economy is showing fatigue, and the housing figures are usually the first to show this.
Source: Alpharactal
Here is the next story
BTC topped out last month, right next to Ethereum [ETH] and Gold, but the most important test has only just begun.
Source:
As the S&P 500 turns, the question now is whether Bitcoin will break lower… or refuse to make a new low.
If BTC manages to maintain its higher-low structure while stocks correct, it will be the same dynamic we saw in April 2025. It was a show of relative strength and early positioning.
But if the floor gives way, the next heavy support zone is closer to $90,000… and those levels could be tagged quickly.
A decision zone
On the daily chart, Bitcoin was above $100,000 at the time of writing, but momentum is clearly weak.
The RSI was near 37, so the market wasn’t oversold yet… but the conviction was certainly fading. Volume had also thinned out and OBV continued to trend lower. Maybe buyers don’t intervene aggressively.
Source: TradingView
The price also settled below the key EMAs, keeping the short-term bias bearish. So the next impulse will matter.
Hold this level and BTC can build a base. Losing that will quickly open up the path to the lower support cluster near $95k-$98k.