Over the years, a number of indicators have emerged that have helped establish the Bitcoin price top for each bull cycle. These have become quite popular due to their success rates during this period. As such, the Coinglass website collects all of these to form a progress chart that can tell when the Bitcoin price is approaching its peak. This progress chart is only just halfway through, but Bitcoin price is having major crashes, so what’s going on?
The bull market peak indicators remain unactivated
There are a total of 30 peak indicators for the Bitcoin bull market followed on the Coinglass website, and so far none have been activated. This means that none of these 30 indicators indicate that the Bitcoin price has reached its peak yet. This suggests there is still more runway for the digital asset before it reaches the cycle peak the next descent begins in the bear market; the tracker therefore remains firmly in the “Hold” area.
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For example, the Bitcoin Dominance indicator is very high, at 92.76%, almost activated, but remains untouched. This comes as Bitcoin dominance over the rest of the altcoin market remains high above 60%, but still below the 65% score needed to trigger the indicator.
Another important indicator is the supply of long-term Bitcoin holders, which tracks the rate at which long-term holders are dumping BTC. This indicator is often triggered when the supply from long-term holders falls below 13.5 million BTC, but at the time of this report it is still above 15 million BTC.
The short-term supply of holders is another indicator that also remains relatively low at the moment. To trigger this indicator, the supply from short-term holders must exceed 30% of the supply. However, it is less than 25%, which suggests that Long term Bitcoin holders still dominate the market.
Sell-offs dominate Bitcoin
While the Bitcoin peak indicators are still not triggering and pointing to a holding time, this hasn’t stopped the massive sell-off that has rocked the cryptocurrency. In recent weeks, reports have emerged of early Bitcoin whales dumping billions of dollars worth of BTC onto the market.
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Bitcoinist reported that between October and November, two early Bitcoin whales had sold more than $1.7 billion worth of BTC in a matter of weeks. This sell-off had added to the initial bearish pressure pushed the Bitcoin price down towards $100,000. Dan, earlier this week, reports arose from another OG whale who dumped 10,000 BTC, worth over $1 billion, into the market.
Given these factors, it appears that Bitcoin is not waiting for the cycle peak indicators to kick in before recovering. The whales are already fueling what appears to be a premature bear market with the massive sell-off.
Featured image of Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com