Despite recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, Bitcoin’s price reacted unexpectedly, falling while many expected a rise. However, market analyst Crypto Birb has identified ten indicators that a potential upside may be on the horizon.
Bitcoin price remains above the major moving averages
At the time of the expert’s post, BTC was trading at $112,000. He be that as exchange-traded funds (ETFs) gain momentum and market fear subsides, the Bitcoin price appears to be consolidating before a significant upward move, indicating a breakout is imminent.
Currently, Bitcoin price is trading comfortably above the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $102,934 and the 200-week SMA of $54,756. Its correlation with the S&P 500 is -0.02, indicating that Bitcoin’s movements are largely independent of broader stock market trends.
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On the daily chart, Bitcoin is supported by the 200-day SMA at $109,267 and a major trendline at $113,100. The relative strength index (RSI) is neutral at 50, while the average true range (ATR) has fallen to 3,495, indicating a calmer market environment.
In terms of short-term bias, the market is balanced, but not yet bullish. The CTF trailer reflects a bearish mode with a stop at $115,623, while the higher timeframe trailer reflects a bullish mode with a stop at $114,601.
Currently, Bitcoin’s trading range is between $110,000 and $117,800, and this compression indicates that an equilibrium is forming. The next major move is expected to occur once this range is breached.
Calm before the storm?
Sentiment within the market appears balanced, with the Fear & Greed Index at 51, reflecting a neutral stance. Crypto Birb claims that emotions have reset after last week’s spike in fear, creating a stable environment for sustainable price movements.
Volatility is also cooling, with a 50-day volatility of 3,080 and an ATR of 3,495. This contraction in trading range suggests that traders are reloading their positions rather than capitulating, and history shows that periods of quiet consolidation often precede volatility shocks.
On the mining front, the economic landscape looks favorable, with mining costs at $106,400 and a ratio of 0.94, indicating that miners remain moderately profitable after last week’s compression. Stable costs indicate there is no immediate pressure for selling, and network fundamentals remain solid.
Looking at the outlook for October, the month-to-date performance shows a small decline of 0.53%, which is still an improvement over the typical historical October average of 19.78%. This signals a healthy reset within an otherwise strong seasonal environment.
A potential 51% increase on the horizon?
The expert further highlighted that the fourth quarter has historically been bullish for the Bitcoin price, with an average gain of 51.04% over the past 15 years, resulting in nine winning years. If the current structure holds, Q4 will remain a high probability accumulation zone.
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Finally, data regarding Ethereum ETFs indicates a silent force beneath the surface, with spot ETF volumes reaching $147 million and net inflows reaching $133.9 million. Total assets under management have reached $24.88 billion, and rising liquidity in altcoins complements continued flows into Bitcoin, supporting a story of market rotation.
However, at the time of writing, Bitcoin price has returned to $110,439. But still within the current consolidation range, this could result in a new uptrend for the leading crypto.
Featured image of DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com