Key Takeaways
Is Bitcoin Nearing a Cycle Top?
Profit-taking remains 50% below previous peaks, HODLer conviction is strong, and Bitcoin’s on-chain data shows no signs of capitulation.
What caused the latest dip?
A $5 billion drop in Open Interest signals a healthy reset as BTC dominance and ETF inflows maintain BTC’s momentum.
The market has officially drifted into neutral territory. Now that the seasonal index is at 55, there is no clear dominance at the time of writing. Neither altcoins nor Bitcoin [BTC] are in season. At the same time, the Fear & Greed Index reflects this calmness.
In this context, BTC’s 2.4% pullback from the all-time high of $125,000 reflects past cycle tops. Risk appetite is low and greed is moderate, indicating weak follow-through and setting up a classic long-squeeze scenario.
BTC’s Open Interest (OI) supports this decreased nearly $5 billion of its $94 billion ATH, with $200 million in long positions already liquidated. Does this setup suggest that Bitcoin may have reached a near-term top?
Holder sell paths that deviate from previous Bitcoin tops
Bitcoin is at a point where patience is essential for targeted betting.
CryptoQuant’s latest report shows some interesting differences. While macro sentiment is light on “dip” buying, BTC supply is tight and HODLer conviction remains strong, something we don’t normally see at cycle tops.
In support of this, net realized gains over the past 30 days reached 0.26 million BTC ($30 billion), about half of the peak of 0.53 million BTC ($63 billion) in July and well below the March and December 2024 highs of $78 billion-$99 billion.
Source: CryptoQuant
In short, holders are not selling and profit taking is 50% below past peaks.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin “OGs” sales also remain light. BTC >10y spent in last 30 days totals 5k (half the levels seen at previous peaks in March and December 2024 and 29% below the May 2025 highs).
Historically, price increases have coincided with much higher spending of these LTHs, reinforcing that the current rally still has room. Against this backdrop, is this dip just a “healthy reset” before Bitcoin season kicks off?
Another key difference that emerges in BTC’s dominance
The seasonal index is official bump the market heading into Bitcoin season.
Notably, it fell 13 points in less than 72 hours, tracking BTC’s top of $125,000, marking a significant difference from previous cycle tops. At the time, Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) broke support as capital turned to high-beta alts.
This time, the flow continues to flow through BTC, with BTC.D up 1% and holding about 59%. In short, even as BTC takes a 2% discount to its ATH, money is still flowing in, backed by $440 million hit BTC ETFs on October 8.
Source: TradingView (BTC.D)
Simply put, Bitcoin has not yet averted risk.
Profit taking is controlled, no capitulation to show on-chain, alts are quiet and institutional spot flows are still tightening supply, keeping BTC’s momentum going. In short, all signs indicate that BTC’s top is still not in sight.
Given these differences, BTC’s 2.4% pullback looks more like a bullish reset than true weakness.
Now that the overexposed longs have been cleared and futures have cooled, it’s a textbook example of a “reset” as Bitcoin season rolls around.