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The hash ribbon indicator-a metric on the chain designed to identify periods of mining capitulation and subsequent recovery has just been published a bullish signal for Bitcoin. Various well-known figures within the BTC community have emphasized the event via messages on X, which suggests that the signal could mark a turning point in the market.
The ultimate Bitcoin -buy signal?
Introduced for the first time by on-chain analyst Charles Edwards, the hash ribbon relies on two advancing averages (usually the averages of 30 days and 60 days of Bitcoin’s hash speed) to determine when mining problems and hash power can have been captled and started. Traditionally, a “buy” signal is activated as soon as the 30-day MA crosses decisively above the 60-day MA, indicating that every period of mine-powered need can be over.
According to historical data, large buying signals have often appeared after the downward market, sometimes coinciding with cycle bottoms. Although the indicator is not infallible, it has correctly identified various previous lows in the history of Bitcoin-especially in 2011-2012, during the depths of the Berenmarkt 2014-2015, around $ 3K soil of the end of 2018-early 2019 and near the $ 29k region in mid-2019.
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Shortly after the last crossover was activated, popular commentator Bitcoin Archive was activated posted: “Bitcoin Hash-Ribbon flashes of buying signal-DIT is one of the most reliable ‘Koop’ indicators. Important price profits have followed 7 of the last 7 times. This indicator was activated.”
Edwards, the maker of the Hash ribbon, has retweeted this message, a movement that many interpreted as an approval of the analysis. Adding to the discussion noted: “Signal flashed only 20 times in the history of Bitcoin. 17/20 times The most recent local low point was never locked. We can sweep the lows, or even wick below, but 85% of the time is the low and it is only from here.”
Meanwhile, Jamie Coutts, main analyst at Real Vision, stressed The importance of monitoring multiple statistics on the chain, even if the hash ribbon bullish blinks: “The much-viewed Bitcoin-Hash ribbon signal has just been fired. Although activity remains slow in the chain, the statistics with the strongest historical correlation with future price performance are green.”
It is remarkable that many signals on the chains did not reach the levels of earlier cycles, even when the Bitcoin price reached nearly $ 110,000 in mid-January. Also, no traditional technical signals have not reached any peaks from the past.
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Tony Severino, a chartered market technician (CMT) and head of research at NewsBTC, recently has shift From a bullish to a bearish attitude on Bitcoin. Severino, who is also the founder of Coinchartist.io, argues that the price action of Bitcoin and on-chain statistics no longer support the bullish stories that occur in the past cycles.
“The idea that Bitcoin should come from the past on indicators is a dangerous way of thinking. Higher highlights in price and lower highlights on an Oscillator is a bearish signal,” Severino recently said.
Severino warns against the expectation of Bitcoin to replicate his historical pattern of pushing certain momentum indicators (eg RSI or MacD) to extreme levels. Instead, he notes that deviations – where price climbs to new highlights, but technical indicators that do not confirm highs – can be able to exhaust the signal market. “The tools that I use are bearish, period,” he noticed via X.
At the time of the press, BTC traded at $ 87,373.
Featured image made with dall.e, graph of tradingview.com