- Trump leads the major prediction markets, but concerns about possible manipulation remain
- Bitcoin recorded volatility ahead of the election, with potential gains if Trump wins
With just one day left until the US presidential elections, former President Donald Trump is emerging as the frontrunner on the major prediction markets. On PolymarktFor example, Trump led with 56.5% of chances, while Vice President Kamala Harris trailed with 43.6% at the time of writing.
A similar trend occurred Kalshiwith Trump having a 52% lead to Harris’s 48%. Taken together, both prediction markets seemed to highlight growing confidence in Trump’s potential return to the Oval Office.
Controversy over the prediction market
However, amid Trump’s rising fortunes in the prediction markets, suspicions have arisen about possible manipulation.
Concerns center around specific accounts, particularly one called “Fredi9999,” which analysts and on-chain researchers believe belong to a single investor who is actively working to shift the odds in Trump’s favor.
This has led to broader questions about Polymarket and Kalshi’s transparency and the accuracy of their forecasts.
In addition to these concerns, Mark Cuban suggested that foreign investment could distort the results. Especially since US citizens are not allowed to participate in such platforms, which further complicates the reliability of these bets.
“From all indications, most of the money coming into Polymarket is foreign money, so I don’t think this points to anything.”
The founder of Kalshi defies all rumours
In response to these rumors, co-founder Tarek Mansour took to Twitter to claim that Trump’s chances are not being artificially inflated by a select group of individuals.
Instead, he emphasized that the situation is quite the opposite.
Source: Tarek Mansour/X
Crypto’s role in this election cycle has been noticeably different, with industry leaders actively involved in campaign contributions. It may have started with the The Winklevoss twins, founders of Gemini, who made headlines by donating $1 million in Bitcoin each to support Trump.
On the other hand, Harris received support from Ripple’s co-founder Chris Larsen after he contributed $10 million in XRP to her campaign.
These significant donations highlight how crypto executives are increasingly influencing the political landscape through contributions to digital assets.
Crypto community divided ahead of elections
This divide was clearly visible when several crypto execs went public to support their favorite candidates.
For example, Anthony Scaramuccian entrepreneur at SkyBridge, expressed his support for X, saying:
“Harris will win.”
On the contrary, Dan Hel noted:
Source: Dan Held/X
How will the elections affect Bitcoin?
Meanwhile, Bitcoin [BTC]The country’s price movements were particularly turbulent in the final week leading up to the US elections.
After peaking at $73,000, BTC fell on the charts, with the crypto valued at $69,085.85 at the time of writing. However, this may change soon. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to follow a bullish path during favorable election opportunities for Trump, indicating a possible price increase if he secures victory.
Some analysts even expect an increase to $100,000 if Trump emerges victorious.
As Election Day approaches, all eyes are on how the outcome could impact BTC’s trajectory.