- Trump has maintained a lead over Kamala on all forecasting sites and models.
- BTC options traders were heavily bullish on expectations for the election results.
All prediction sites and top models showed that pro-Bitcoin [BTC] candidate Donald Trump has a greater chance of winning the upcoming US presidential election.
According to the latter judgement According to analyst Jim Bianco of Bianco Research, prediction sites such as Polymarket, Kalshi, PredictIt and others estimate a +60% chance of Trump’s victory.
Source: Bianco Research
Potential impact on BTC
While some platforms like Polymarket have recently faced criticism for alleged manipulation, other reliable models have leaned toward Trump.
Bianco noted that the best election models, such as Silver Bulletin and two other popular models, also showed a high +50% probability of a Trump victory.
“Silver is not the only one with an election model. Silver Bulletin, FiveThirtyEight, Economist Magazine. They all have Trump up over 50%.”
This above-expectation is considered bullish by speculators in the BTC markets.
Notably, BTC exploded in recent weeks as Trump’s odds soared, surpassing 60% on Polymarket. It pushed BTC to almost $70,000. Commenting on the correlation, Bianco called it an “election game.”
“And another election game, although this relationship may be ‘fraying’ in recent days.”
Source: Bianco Research
Market positioning
Perhaps the most obvious impact of the aforementioned bullish expectation on Trump’s victory was on the BTC options market. Last week, options traders were prices a 20% chance that BTC will reach $80,000 by the end of November.
Sentiment was unchanged at the time of going to press. According to Deribit factsthere was almost twice as much Open Interest in call options (bet price rally) than in put options (price drop) for contracts expiring on November 8.
Source: Deribit
Moreover, the put/call ratio (PCR), which tracks sentiment in the options market, was 0.55.
For context, if the ratio is above 1, there are more puts than calls, which is bearish sentiment. On the other hand, a value below 1 means dominance of call options, which underlines the bullish sentiment.
That said, the PCR value of 0.55 reflected extremely bullish sentiment in the options market, perhaps due to speculators’ assumption that Trump would likely win.
However, given Harris’s increasingly pro-crypto stance, BTC options traders were confident the asset could hit a new all-time high (ATH) regardless of who wins the US election.
Meanwhile, BTC was valued at $67K at the time of writing, about 9% away from its ATH of $73.7K.
