Bitcoin Could Reach $80,000 as Crypto ‘Animal Spirits’ Awaken, Says Bitwise CIO

Bitwise’s Chief Investment Officer, Matt Hougan, believes Bitcoin could still reach new all-time highs of $80,000 this year, but only under specific circumstances.

In an October 9 remark For investors, Hougan outlined the key factors that could influence Bitcoin’s upward trajectory, including the outcome of the US election, economic conditions and the absence of major disruptions in the crypto space.

American elections

Hougan suggested that Bitcoin could rise to $80,000 if the upcoming US elections produce anything other than an outright Democratic victory.

While many see the election as a clear choice between pro-crypto Donald Trump and “lukewarm” Kamala Harris, Hougan explained that the situation is more complex.

According to him, the Democratic party is populated by politicians with differing opinions on the emerging industry, ranging from Senator Elizabeth Warren’s anti-crypto stance to Representative Ritchie Torres’ strong support for the technology.

Hougan argued that the Warren wing’s control over policy and key appointments over the past four years has created a challenging environment for the crypto sector. So if the Democratic party doesn’t win both the White House and Congress, he expects they will take a more neutral stance toward the industry.

He stated:

“To thrive, bitcoin doesn’t need politicians. It’s just necessary that they get out of the way. And barring a Democratic breakthrough in both houses of Congress and the White House, I suspect this will be the case, with Democrats taking a more neutral approach to the industry.”

Hougan shared data from the decentralized prediction platform Polymarket showing that the odds of a Democratic sweep are currently 20%, while a Republican sweep is 33%. The platform also shows a 54% chance of Trump winning the presidency, a 73% chance of a Republican-controlled Senate and a 62% chance of a Democratic House.

Economic conditions

Hougan identified further economic developments as crucial to Bitcoin’s potential rally. He expects two more rate cuts from the Federal Reserve by the end of the year, totaling 50 basis points, in addition to additional fiscal stimulus from China.

Hougan pointed out that the market is eager for more cuts, and he expects the Federal Reserve to deliver on the forecast rate cuts. He wrote:

“If it’s both, I suspect we’ll get our Q4 rally. If we don’t do that, I think the disappointment could weigh on the market.”

Stability in the crypto industry

The final factor that could push Bitcoin past $80,000 this year is stability within the crypto industry.

Hougan emphasized the importance of avoiding major surprises, such as significant hacks, new lawsuits, or a flood of previously locked tokens hitting the market. He added:

“If we can get through the end of the year without similar shocks, I expect new record highs and much more.”

‘Animal Spirits’

While Bitcoin’s success is not dependent on other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum or Solana, Hougan noted that broader positive sentiment in the crypto market could boost Bitcoin’s short-term performance.

The Bitwise CIO mentioned the potential for Bitcoin to reach $100,000 within months, especially if “animal spirits” – a term he uses to describe pro-crypto sentiment – ​​sweep through the market.

This year, those “animal spirits” have been relatively absent, except for Bitcoin. However, Hougan believes that the growth of stablecoins and the rise of high-throughput blockchains such as Suicould further support Bitcoin’s upward momentum, alongside innovative projects like Babylon.

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