- Bitcoin’s weekly trend over the past six months is worrying
- An examination of on-chain statistics showed that BTC could reach its peak in a year
Bitcoin [BTC] has been in a slow downtrend since early June, when it started recording lower highs and lower lows on the weekly chart. However, the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant Ki Young Ju is convinced that Bitcoin is still ‘mid-cycle’.
In one after on This was not a bullish development, and an increase in the number of US investors is necessary to take Bitcoin to its peak.
AMBCrypto then used on-chain metrics to see if the cycle is really only halfway through or not, and the results were hopeful.
Profit-taking behavior has bullish implications in the long term
The UTXO age categories showed the percentage distribution of the realized limit over different UTXO age categories. Here the graph shows the ratio of the realized limit of issued UTXOs that have been moved.
The UTXO ages from 3 months to 2 years have sharper peaks and valleys at different parts of the cycle. Towards the market top, these age categories fall sharply and form the bottom approximately around the market top. The subsequent downtrend saw them climb higher, meaning more holders re-entered the Bitcoin market as buyers.
Between the cycle tops there is also a shallower peak and a trough that lasted a few months. That doesn’t represent the cycle top, but it does imply that holders thought it was a top. We can see this in October 2013, October 2016 and April 2020.
The previous two peaks came within months of the BTC halving, showing a new wave of accumulation around the halving that would lead to a distribution after a bull run.
A similar peak in the coming months after the April 2024 halving would therefore mean that the cycle top will occur in about a year.
The timing of Puell Multiple and BTC market
The Puell multiple can outline market tops and increased selling pressure from miners. Like the UTXO bands, these also formed inter-cycle spikes to signal miners that they were realizing profits before the halving to stay in the business.
Read Bitcoin’s [BTC] Price forecast 2024-25
The most recent peak occurred in March 2024, reaffirming the idea that Bitcoin is only halfway through its current cycle.