- According to Peter Brandt, BTC would have reached the top in this cycle.
- However, other market analysts disagreed.
Bitcoin [BTC] Some relief came on August 21, after the July FOMC minutes showed that some policymakers were calling for rate cuts.
The largest digital asset briefly retested $61,000, but overall sentiment remained weak.
In fact, August marks the fifth month of price consolidation for BTC, casting doubt on whether the asset will reach a new ATH (all-time high).
According to Peter Brandt, the current cycle took too long to reach a new ATH, which may well be the case signal that there was already a BTC cycle top.
“The current bull market cycle for $BTC will soon become the longest post-halving time in history for a new ATH, or could indicate that no new ATH is in the offing.”
Source:
BTC is on track; Other analysts disagree
However, other crypto analysts disagree with Brandt’s bearish outlook. According to Benjamin Cowen, BTC was on track and in sync with other historical market cycle movements.
“Despite everything, #BTC is where it always is at this point in the market cycle.”
Source:
Based on the attached chart, BTC was on the verge of the next leg of a rally if the historical trend continues.
According to CryptoQuant Founder Ki Young Ju, the Next Phase of the BTC Rally Could Start in the Fourth Quarter cited likely whale actions.
“In #Bitcoin’s last halving cycle, the bull rally started in the fourth quarter. Whales won’t let the fourth quarter be boring with flat year-over-year performance.”
Source: CryptoQuant
Another data point that suggested a likely rebound in BTC was the recent decline in funding rates alongside a rise in open interest rates. According to K33 Research, this market setup was ‘ripe‘ for a short squeeze.
“Market conditions appear ripe for a short squeeze. The notional open interest of BTC perpetrators has increased by 30,000 BTC since August 13, with consistent negative funding rates.”
Moreover, Glassnode revealed that BTC Long-Term Holders (LTH) have reduced profit-taking, which historically tends to herald a new price uptrend.
However, according to CryptoQuant, BTC is an inventory on OTC (over-the-counter) markets. increased to a two-year high, which could stifle BTC’s near-term recovery.
“Bitcoin OTC Desk Balances Rise to Two-Year Peak. Historically, increases in #Bitcoin OTC desk balances have been associated with declines in Bitcoin prices.”
Source: CryptoQuant
In short, BTC had more upside potential if the historical trend after the halving were to repeat. However, the expected rally could face risks due to the rising BTC balance on OTC markets.