Journalist
Posted:
- Expectations of a rapid rise in altcoin market capitalization were supported by technical analysis.
- Some selling pressure could depress Ethereum prices in the first quarter of 2024.
The crypto market has been on fire since mid-October. Bitcoin [BTC] saw a massive increase in trading volume as the bulls rushed in and forced prices to break the $29.8k resistance to smithereens.
Since then, there have been major assets such as Ethereum [ETH] have also performed well.
A bird’s eye view of the crypto market in general, as well as the altcoin market, could help put into perspective where we are today. In that effort, the market capitalization of the entire crypto market and that of the altcoin sector was examined.
The highs of October and August 2022 were exceeded
The market cap excluding BTC and ETH is the altcoin market cap. The $413.8 billion and $453.9 billion were the highs of October and August 2022, respectively.
At the time of writing, the market cap has beaten both levels. The weekly chart showed the next significant level was $839.1 billion. A move here would mean a market cap increase of more than 80%.
During the previous cycle, the market cap highs set in 2018 for altcoins were respected until September 2020. After that, the price reversed to support, and the market continued to rise until the end of 2022.
So it’s possible that the same scenario will play out again, and the $839 billion resistance won’t be as much of an obstacle once the bull run is in motion.
Source: Crypto Market Cap Excluding BTC and ETH, TradingView
Assessing the timeline
The 2018 cycle lasted 175 days before it began to reverse. The one in 2021-2022 lasted 413 days.
Thus, it could be argued that as the market matures, the cycle length also increases, while the magnitude of profits (in percentage terms) decreases.
Continuing this logic, the next run could last much longer than 400 days, and it was unclear how high the total crypto market cap could reach.
A conservative estimate based on the Fib extension levels in the chart above showed that $5 billion was possible, but much higher profits are also possible.
Source: Crypto Total Market Cap, TradingView
Investigating the state of the altcoin king
It is a widely held belief that an ETH rally will be accompanied by an altcoin market-wide rally. Therefore, it can be useful to look at how Ethereum is developing.
In the long term, i.e. the next two years, a large price increase in the market seems inevitable.
Source: Santiment
However, in the coming weeks, it would be wise for ETH holders to book some profits. The MVRV ratio rose towards early 2023 highs.
Realistic or not, here is the market cap of ETH in terms of BTC
This meant that a large portion of ETH holders were sitting on unrealized gains. This could contribute to the selling pressure Ethereum is facing as they look to make gains.
Therefore, Ethereum could experience some turbulence in the next two months as the high MVRV ratio adjusts. But based on the previous evidence, the crypto market seemed to be heading inexorably higher.