The head of research at a leading digital asset manager says one catalyst could send Bitcoin (BTC) soaring to over $265,000.
In a new blog afterCoinShares head of research James Butterfill shares his calculations of a potential price impact if a spot BTC exchange-traded fund (ETF) is approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC).
He says the financial ETF product would attract a large influx of institutional money, some of it estimated $48.3 trillion addressable assets in the United States.
“You could assume that maybe 10% invest in a spot Bitcoin ETF with an average allocation of 1%, which equates to $14.4 billion in inflows in the first year…
There appears to be a relationship between inflows as a percentage of assets under management (assets under management) and the change in investments [BTC] price…
If we take the aforementioned $14.4 billion inflow, the model suggests that this could push the price up to $141,000 per Bitcoin. The problem with estimating inflows is that it is very difficult to determine exactly how much inflows there will be when the spot ETFs are launched. Below is a simple matrix showing a varied set of inflows and their potential impact on the Bitcoin price.
Looking at his chart, his analysis shows that if inflows reached $31.3 billion, Bitcoin could rise to $265,437, an increase of over 627% from its current value of $36,475 at the time of writing.
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Generated image: DALLE3