Crypto analyst Jason Pizzino says a rare macro indicator suggests that risk assets including Bitcoin (BTC) have already bottomed and are preparing to rise.
In a new strategy session, Pizzino tells his 290,000 YouTube subscribers that he is looking at the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI), which tracks households’ prospects for potential future economic development based on monthly surveys.
Citing data from Sentimentrader, Pizzino says the CCI essentially acts as a contrarian indicator for the stock market, with downward CCI values signaling future market growth and upward values signaling exuberance.
“Like many sentiment indicators, it is a contrarian indicator. High numbers because the crowd is getting too bearish and reversals from high numbers are usually bullish for stocks, so you want to see reversals from higher numbers. The crowd was very bearish at the bottom.”
With CCI in the process of confirming a reversal and moving below the 70 level, Pizzino says that based on history, stocks and cryptocurrencies should rise in the next three to six months, which would be the “max pain” move and could lead Bitcoin “off to the races.”
“A lot of data suggests that these markets will be on the rise over the next month, possibly three to six months. In three to six months it won’t be that far away. Day to day it’s a mystery, but in the longer term everything looks pretty good.”
Looking at Bitcoin, Pizzino says a modest move towards key support levels is more likely than a dramatic collapse to much lower prices. He says he would use a correction to the $23,000 level as a ‘buy the dip’ opportunity.
“Is it going to be that collapse down that I think a lot of people are waiting for? This collapse beyond $19,500 or $15,500? At this stage that does not appear to be the case. Could this happen for Bitcoin? Of course, there will always be some possibility of liquidity drying up, and it is especially dry when the market is quiet and you are getting small trading margins compared to a move down and the moves up. upside down.
But in terms of the closing basis, on a multiple weekly and monthly basis [candles]At this stage it seems unlikely that we will close below these levels to hit new new lows. Based on timing, based on price, it doesn’t seem likely, based on history.”
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