- Although the price has fallen, data shows that BTC has not yet bottomed out.
- A deep dive revealed that the coin can reach $64,688 as long as demand increases.
It has been 83 days since the prestigious Bitcoin [BTC] halving event, but the coin has not yet shown any glimpse of its traditional post-halving rally. This year the halving, which reduces the number of coins created and rewards for miners, took place on April 19.
During that period, Bitcoin’s price changed hands around $63,976. This was after the price reached an all-time high of $73,750 in March. As expected, the broader market viewed the event as a crucial one to drive higher BTC prices.
Patience is the name of the game
About a month later, BTC tested $71,000 again. But it didn’t take long for the price to recover. 83 days since Bitcoin’s halving, the crypto’s price has undergone notable corrections, losing around 12.76% of its value.
Although Bitcoin historically experiences a post-halving downturn, this one appears to be extraordinary. This is mainly because the price action has been disappointing for about three months.
At the time of writing, the price of BTC was $57,908. According to AMBCryptos analysis of the Puell Multiple, the expected bull run may not have arrived yet.
Puell Multiple shows the difference between Bitcoin miners’ short-term and long-term earnings. This is done by dividing the daily issuance of BTC by the issuance over 365 days.
If the ratio is between 1 and 6, it usually means prices are higher. Values above 6 indicate that the price may have reached the top.
On the other hand, if the Puell Multiple is less than 1, it indicates that prices have fallen, with values lower than 0.40 suggesting the bottom.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to CryptoQuant, Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple was 0.64, indicating that the correction is still underway. However, if the ratio reaches 0.40, it could indicate a bottom for Bitcoin, and a recovery could be next.
However, it is noteworthy to mention that it may take another month or so for Bitcoin to bottom out. If this is the case, the bull run may not occur until the beginning of the fourth quarter (Q4) or towards the end of Q3.
HODLers don’t just give up
But it’s also important to realize that things can change quickly. Should this happen and demand increase, AMBCrypto’s prediction of $75,000 could come true by the end of July.
Despite the unimpressive price action since the halving, long-term holders are showing confidence in the coin’s potential. We observed this after researching the LTH-NUPL.
LTH-NUPL stands for Long Term Holder-Net Unrealized Profit/Loss. This on-chain metric analyzes the behavior of Bitcoin holders who have held the coin for at least 155 days.
According to Glassnode, LTH-NUPL was in the green zone, indicating believe in the long-term potential from BTC. Should this remain the same in the future, demand for Bitcoin could increase, potentially driving the price up.
Source: Glassnode
However, if it returns to the levels of optimism or fear, Bitcoin’s momentum could slow down. Between June 6 and July 7, the price of Bitcoin fell by 21.46%.
Is a $71,000 retest possible soon?
Although the price was close to a retest of $58,000, it is still trading below the 200 EMA (yellow). EMA stands for Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This indicator measures the trend direction over a certain period of time.
If the price is trading above it, it means the trend is bullish. But if it is below that, it indicates a bearish trend. But for Bitcoin it was different as the price was about to reverse the zone
Should this happen, accompanied by signs of increasing upside momentum from the Awesome Oscillator (AO), Bitcoin could return to its bull phase.
Specifically, this could prompt Bitcoin to retest its halving and possible trading around $64,688.
Source: TradingView
In a very bullish case, the price could rise to $71,386, potentially setting the stage for a bull run that would take the price to $80,000.
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Meanwhile, there are comments from analysts on Bitcoin’s price action. One of these came from a pseudonym at X Rekt Capital. According to Rekt Capital, it may take some time before the bull run starts like it did named That,
“Bitcoin is not yet ready to break the downward trend”