The Bitcoin landscape is no stranger to debates and predictions. Two dominant theories are currently in prominence: the 4-year cycle and the Elliot Impulse Wave. A comprehensive one analysis by esteemed crypto analyst CryptoCon, suggests a fascinating intersection of these two theories.
The Dueling Bitcoin Price Prediction Theories
At the center of the debate are two camps. The first, the proponents of the 4-year cycle, believe in Bitcoin’s 4-year journey from cycle tops to bottoms, with a predicted peak in 2025. The second camp, the Elliot Impulse Wave proponents, predict a powerful parabolic top this year or by early 2024.
CryptoCon’s meticulous analysis, which includes TA, on-chain data, market psychology and more, offers a new perspective. “I believe it’s possible to see the best of both worlds for any group of thinkers,” he said.
A significant portion of the 4-year cycle theory hinges on the impact of the halving on Bitcoin’s price. “When the supply of Bitcoin is reduced about every 4 years, this should cause a decrease in supply, driving the price up,” explains CryptoCon. However, he also brought up a counterpoint, pointing out the diminishing influence of miners’ output on Bitcoin’s price, especially given the current market size.
Historical parallels, signals and indicators
CryptoCon drew attention to the 2011-2013 cycle, a period that did not adhere to traditional patterns. This cycle experienced both an early and a later peak. Could this be a precedent for the current cycle? “Both groups of people seem to forget a certain cycle that seemingly defied all rules. 2011 – 2013,” he recalls.
Two compelling signals were central to his analysis: the DXY correlation coefficient and the Vigor signal. Historically, these were precursors to a price parabola. ‘The parabolic signal is activated. This has by definition been the beginning of any price parabola,” he stressed, underlining their reliability. Historically, when Bitcoin has had a low correlation to the US dollar, significant price movements have been observed.
The November 28 Cycles Theory, rooted in the date of Bitcoin’s first halving, has also been a consistent predictor of Bitcoin’s price movements for a decade. It segments Bitcoin’s price journey into four distinct phases: green, blue, red, and orange years (see chart below), each with its own characteristic price behavior. “Given its level of accuracy, there is no reason to expect it to fail this cycle. They tell us that the real cycle top will come at the end of 2025,” CryptoCon confidently stated.
CryptoCon’s Trend Pattern Price Model, which uses angular patterns of cycle highs and lows to predict future ones, projects a price of $130,000 by the end of the cycle theory of Nov. 28. He was quick to warn against over-reliance on fundamentals, stating, “While many would say there is no limit to price with fundamentals, I think this is an absolutely ludicrous argument.”
Converging BTC Predictions
Synthesizing all this data, CryptoCon envisions a scenario where both the 4-year cycle and the Elliot Impulse Wave theories can coexist harmoniously. He expects an early top around April 2024, possibly to $90,000, followed by a mid-cycle bear market. The eventual top, he predicts, could reach $130,000 by the end of 2025.
CryptoCon’s analysis, while detailed and comprehensive, also comes with a dose of humility. “This is what I think is possible. Absolute? Hardly, he noted. As the Bitcoin community continues its fiery discussions, one thing remains clear: only time will truly reveal what course Bitcoin’s price will take.
At the time of writing, the BTC price was at $29,466.
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView.com