Bitcoin could fall to around $30,000 before the end of the year – at least according to a widely followed chart analyst. That gloomy projection, drawn from a pattern attached to it US midterm election yearsadds new weight to growing skepticism about whether Bitcoin can reach $250,000 by 2026.
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Pattern linked to election years raises red flags
Analyst Merlijn The Trader pointed out a recurring trend in Bitcoin may sell strongly of midterm election years. In 2014, Bitcoin fell by 60%. In 2018 it fell by 65%. In 2022 the decline was 66%.
Each of these drops started around May. If 2026 follows the same script, Bitcoin – which is currently trading around $77,000 – could lose more than 60% of its value and end up somewhere near $30,000.
THREE WORDS. THREE CYCLES. ZERO EXCEPTIONS.
To sell. In. Be able to.
But only in midterm election years.
2014: -61%. 2018: -65%. 2022: -66%.
2026: interim year. -60.73% points to $30,000.
May is approaching.The graph doesn’t lie.
Neither does the calendar. pic.twitter.com/qUshNbIHPN— Merlijn De Handelaar (@MerlijnTrader) April 27, 2026
Capital Group analysts have noted that midterm elections tend to increase uncertainty in the marketas spring campaign activity picks up and investors retreat from riskier assets. That environment, they say, has historically forced people to be cautious.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin is already trading about 40% below its October 2025 all-time high of about $126,000. Despite this decline, high-profile bulls like billionaire Tim Draper and Fundstrat’s Tom Lee haven’t backed off from their $250,000 end target — a price that would require the cryptocurrency to more than triple from current levels.
Bitcoiners
Those of you predicting $250,000 by 2026 need to quit the mushrooms
This is called a channel $BTC
While it does not rule out further price gains, it is NOT a bullish bottoming pattern
The Factor Report reports on classic graph analysis https://t.co/6nRit1xsVp pic.twitter.com/ApMM46KFla— The Factor Report (@PeterLBrandt) April 27, 2026
Peter Brandt tells the bulls to put down the mushrooms
Veteran futures trader Peter Brandt has been blunter than most. In response to the $250,000 predictions, Brandt posted on social media: “Those of you predicting $250,000 in 2026 should stop with the mushrooms.”
He pointed to what he described as a bear flag channel forming on Bitcoin’s daily chart — not a bottoming pattern, he pointed out, but a continuation of the existing downtrend.
Based on the setup, BTC tested resistance around $79,500 before showing signs of a pullback. A cut to the lower end of the flag, around $69,000, is possible in May if selling pressure returns. A more severe collapse below that line, Brandt warned, could push Bitcoin below $50,000.
Halving cycle data suggests the peak may already have arrived
The halving cycle history makes it harder to ignore the bear case. Historically, Bitcoin’s price peaks occurred 12 to 18 months after each halving. After the halving in 2012, the peak came within twelve months. After 2016, it arrived in 17 months. After 2020 it took 18 months.
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The most recent halve happened in April 2024. Bitcoin reached its all-time high of $126,000 in October 2025 – right after 17 to 18 months. Now, more than 24 months after that halving, the price is around $77,000 and still falling. Analysts say that timeline closely matches previous cycle peaks, suggesting the top of this cycle may already be behind us.
However, not everyone is willing to call it a bear market. Analysts at Bernstein have pointed to a potential recovery towards $100,000 to $150,000, a more measured view that neither chases the $250,000 target nor indulges the most bearish projections.
Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView