- Bitcoin’s latest forecast placed the peak of the next bull run above $160,000.
- The S2F timeline for the next rally peak is expected to occur between 2024 and 2025.
Many have tried to accurately predict Bitcoins [BTC] cycle peaks and bottoms with little to no accuracy. PlanB’s stock-to-flow model (S2F) is perhaps one of the classic examples of a much-discussed strategy.
Read Bitcoin [BTC] Price Forecast 2023-24
Unfortunately, PlanB’s S2F model failed to accurately predict the market top in 2021. But could there be a more accurate version of the stock-to-flow model?
Well, CryptoQuant analyst Gigi Sulivan recently performed an S2F analysis of Bitcoin. It may provide some clarity on what to expect before, during and after the next Bitcoin halving.
Source: CryptoQuant
According to Gigi Sulivan’s analysis, BTC’s S2F chart registers a spike during each halving. Historically, after each halving, there was a bull run leading to a new peak, followed by a bear market.
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled for May 2024. A bull run may be at stake if it maintains characteristics similar to those observed during previous halving events.
Feasible or too ambitious?
Sulivan’s analysis expects Bitcoin to peak between $160,288 and $206,824 during the bullish cycle of the fourth halving. Interestingly, during the previous two halvings, S2F predictions were significantly lower than the actual peaks.
This means that Bitcoin could rise well above USD 260,000 during the next bullish cycle.
Source: CryptoQuant
But is the predicted price for the next cycle really achievable? Well, some past predictions have much higher expectations regarding the price of Bitcoin in the future.
For example, some believe that Bitcoin could be worth more than $1 million in the future. This means that the prediction based on this S2F analysis is slightly more feasible, especially in the short term.
Bitcoin will need a lot of liquidity to penetrate predicted prices. Fortunately, this prediction matched up with some interesting market observations.
For example, institutional demand for BTC has recovered significantly in recent months. In addition, there were several Bitcoin ETFs pending approval at the time of writing. They could boost BTC’s rise in the months leading up to next year’s halving.
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While Bitcoin traders should take note of these predictions, it is also important to note that they are speculative. This means that they do not guarantee that prices will rise to those levels.
The market is known to be quite unpredictable and therefore there is a good chance that things will not go as expected. On the other hand, a rally beyond the predicted levels is also possible.