Conviction will likely determine the market’s next big move.
From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s weekly chart has traded within a consolidation range between $60,000 and $80,000 over the past 14 weeks.
With prices under pressure for so long, the eventual breakout could be significant. At this stage it mainly comes down to whether the market can continue to calm its nerves.
That said, current numbers still don’t clearly point to a market bottom. Institutional selling pressure has increased, with the Coinbase Premium Index sliding deeper into negative territory.
Meanwhile, BTC has seen four consecutive days of ETF outflows, while a $584 million liquidation washed leverage out of the market without fully resetting sentiment.
In short, the institutional positioning currently seems to be leaning towards a possible downward move once this consolidation phase breaks through.
That said, the latest market reaction also highlights a larger trend beneath the surface. Nearly $500 billion entered the total crypto market cap after reports of a possible peace deal between the US and Iran surfaced.
This response shows that macro news is still driving recent market flows. In this context, institutions continue to cautiously position themselves around Bitcoin [BTC] rather than signaling weak conviction or aggressive long-term selling.
Notably, a recent report from CryptoQuant further supports this view, showing that the strong belief surrounding Bitcoin remains intact.
Bitcoin miners’ beliefs contrast with on-chain signals
Miners are often the first to capitulate when they sense a bear phase is starting.
The logic is simple: as Bitcoin declines, so does miners’ profitability, forcing them to reduce their holdings and protect margins, especially when volatility is driven by macro factors.
In this context, data from Binance Pool shows that miners’ reserves are still declining, meaning miners continue to reduce their holdings. This points to continued distributional pressure rather than accumulation.
However, other mining metrics, such as the fact that the MPI remains negative, suggest that selling pressure remains contained compared to previous cycle tops. Essentially, miners remain in a wait-and-see phase.
They are not confident enough to accumulate, but not afraid enough to make aggressive sales. This still points to consolidation conditions and not a confirmed market bottom.
The most important takeaway? Compared to previous cycles, Bitcoin miners’ conviction remains relatively strong.
According to AMBCrypto, this marks an important difference in this cycle. Despite technical weaknessinstitutional selling and macro volatility are not capitulating Bitcoin miners aggressively, supporting a stronger case for continued consolidation rather than a complete collapse.
In this context, the recent $500 billion inflows are starting to carry more weight.
With conviction still firmly in place beneath the surface, a shift to a fully risky environment could position Bitcoin’s current consolidation phase for a stronger upside reaction.
As a result, this divergence remains an important signal to monitor when assessing whether Bitcoin is forming a cycle bottom.
Final summary
- Bitcoin is still consolidating between $60,000 and $80,000, with institutional selling and weak flows pointing to downside risk if the range breaks.
- At the same time, strong miner conviction and macro inflows are creating an important divergence that could point to a possible bottom of the BTC cycle.