US Bitcoin ETF holders were underwater.
According to Jim Biancoa macro investment research analyst at Bianco Research, the average cost basis for all ETF buyers since 2024 was $90.2K.
After the prolonged dip over the past 24 hours, the BTC price fell to $82.3K at the time of writing. As a result, the number of investors owning ETFs since launch has fallen by approximately 8.5%.
Source: Bianco Research/Bloomberg
Is a BTC rebound still planned?
At the end of 2025, BTC ETF inflows fell sharply and continued to fluctuate into the new year. This decline further weakened the prospects for a strong recovery.
However, the correlation between the BTC ETF’s average cost basis and price revealed an important insight. For example, in September 2024, when the price fell below the ETF’s average purchase level, BTC consolidated around that point before staging a strong recovery.
A similar pattern emerged in early 2025 during the rate-driven market dump, when BTC bounced off the average ETF cost base again.
If the current trend reflects the third quarter of 2024, another recovery could be possible, with a potential bottom below $90,000.
This thesis is supported by data from Bianco Research, which shows that the combined average purchase price for Strategy and spot BTC ETFs is currently $84.5K.
Throughout this cycle, major credit declines at this level have continued to decline. As a result, defending $84.5K appears crucial to maintaining the broader bullish market structure.
Source: Bianco Research
In other words, a sustained dip below $84.5K and a crack below this key support could signal a deeper decline, ultimately negating the broader bullish market structure.
BTC’s medium-term headwinds mapped out
But do other data sets support such recovery prospects?
According to the 30-day average of BTC demand growth, it has turned negative for the first time since mid-2025. Given the recovery in 2024 and 2025, a similar move is only possible if ETFs become net buyers again.
Source: CryptoQuant
But according to Fundstrat’s Tom Lee, the market won’t stabilize until the new Fed seat choice is confirmed and tested.
US President Donald Trump’s plan to announce the choice of a new Fed chairman later today has already roiled markets, underscoring a turbulent 2026 as Lee previously predicted.
Final thoughts
- If BTC finally wins back the combined strategy, we will see the average purchase price of BTC ETFs of $84.5K.
- Fundstrat’s Tom Lee predicted a deeper decline as markets test the new Fed chairman.