Fundstrat’s Tom Lee thinks historical precedent indicates April could be a strong month for stocks.
In a new interview on CNBC, Lee estimates that 90-95% of the market sell-off caused by the Iran war is already in the past.
“As March unfolded, the war seemed not to be a short war, but a war that would last longer, and I think the markets have adjusted to that. But we are still in the middle of this fog of war because we don’t know when it will end, but we have looked at the last seven major war events and the stock market is adjusting quite quickly.
Within the first 10% of the entire duration of a war, the stock market typically bottoms out.”
Lee points to World War II as an important historical reference.
So World War II lasted almost five years, and after five months the market bottomed out. So I think as bad as March was, we’ve probably seen a lot of that adjustment. And now I think the risk/reward ratio is quite good for equities.”
The market strategist still expects the S&P 500 to reach 7,700 points by the end of the year, despite the difficult start to 2026.
The leading index stands at 6,604.85 at the time of writing and has risen 3.15% in the past five days, but is down 3.82% this year.
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