The Bitcoin community is divided over whether there is really a need to rush to meet the 2029 deadline for migrating to a quantum-secure network.
For his part, Samsom Mow, founder of JAN3, an advisory body for nation-state adoption of BTC, has warned against a hasty push for untested and unverified post-quantum (PQ) solutions. He warned that,
Solving the QC problem later rather than sooner is the best course of action.
Mow denounced Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong’s call for an “earlier” PQ upgrade. He stated that it could expose BTC to attacks from current classical computers.
Furthermore, the proposed PQ solutions would reduce Bitcoin transactions due to larger block sizes.
PQ signatures will likely be 10-125x larger than current ones, greatly reducing throughput. This may pave the way for Blocksize Wars 2.0.
Solana, one of the fastest blockchains, even has one potential delay of 90% if current PQ solutions are implemented.
Finally, Mow pointed out the possibility that the US NSA (National Security Agency) would push current PQ solutions as standards with hidden ‘backdoors’ to infiltrate future systems.
Google Pushes for a Quick PQ Bitcoin Upgrade Before 2029
The renewed debate follows a recent report from Google Quantum AI, which found that Bitcoin and most blockchain encryption could be broken sooner than previous estimates suggested.
According to the findings, advanced quantum processors may need around 500,000 physical qubits or 1,200 to 1,450 stable logical qubits to compromise crypto security.
This conflicted with previous estimates of millions of qubits. Google had pushed for a PQ upgrade by 2029 to prevent nearly 7 million BTC from being at risk.
In short, there are less than three years before further quantum advances threaten BTC.
Bitcoin’s history makes this complicated. Protocol changes often take time and lead to disagreement.
Charles Edwards of Capriole Investment even predicted that BTC will never reach a new all-time high unless it migrates to PQ.
However, some crypto and cypherpunks like Adam Back still believe that it will be years before physical quantum computers come to market, despite recent developments.
Grayscale’s head of research, Zach Pandl, reinforced a similar view, noting:
Investors don’t have to worry. In our opinion, there is no security risk to public blockchains today from quantum computing. But it’s time to accelerate efforts to prepare for our post-quantum future.
Apart from Satoshi-era wallets and Taproot, most investors have migrated to relatively more resistant addresses (Segwit, P2WPKH).
Final summary
- Jan3’s Samson Mow criticized Coinbase’s CEO for rushing a PQ upgrade for Bitcoin, citing transfer speed risks and further attacks.
- Grayscale said QC was not yet an issue, but urged players to accelerate PQ upgrades.